Diplomacy & Crisis News

Cette recension a été publiée dans le numéro de printemps de Politique étrangère (n°1/2017). Corentin Brustlein, responsable du Centre des études de sécurité à l’Ifri, propose une analyse de l’ouvrage de Jean-Yves Le Drian, Qui est l’ennemi ? (Éditions du Cerf, 2016, 96 pages).

L’expression publique d’un ministre de la Défense en activité comporte une part routinière incompressible, résultante d’échéances régulières, tels les vœux de début d’année, les commémorations, les discours d’ouverture ou de conclusion de colloques, ou les auditions au Parlement. Certes, Qui est l’ennemi ? est la version allongée de l’un de ces discours, prononcé aux Assises nationales de la recherche stratégique, en décembre 2015. Il serait toutefois erroné de n’y voir qu’une énième prise de parole officielle. L’ouvrage est en réalité le produit d’une réflexion approfondie conduite par le ministre, et au sein de son ministère, en écho à la dégradation brutale de l’environnement stratégique survenue depuis 2014.

Ce court essai a ainsi pour première ambition d’exposer la nature de la lutte engagée par la France contre Daech, entité ayant constitué, soutenu et projeté un « djihadisme militarisé » jusqu’à l’Hexagone. Il s’ouvre par un retour sur les figures historiques de l’ennemi, et sur les évolutions qu’elles connurent à mesure que la guerre changeait de forme. Le xxe siècle voit ainsi la France passer de la figure d’un ennemi total et direct, l’Allemagne, à celle d’un ennemi soviétique, plus indirecte et lointaine, ennemi avec qui les rapports politiques et stratégiques sont finalement canalisés, réglés. Avec l’irruption de Daech, un ennemi direct réapparaît dans l’horizon stratégique national, et Qui est l’ennemi ? analyse aussi bien le problème stratégique et opérationnel qu’il pose, que ses implications pour la posture française.

L’ouvrage décrit ainsi un ennemi aux traits totalitaires, combinant chef charismatique, idéologie génocidaire, monopole de la violence et de l’intimidation, stratégie de terreur, et intégration des leviers de puissance dans une entreprise de domination. L’essai illustre bien la variété et la complexité des formes du défi que représente Daech, qui joue sur un très large spectre de sophistication, allant des meurtres à l’arme blanche à l’usage des drones, le tout appuyé par une communication terriblement efficace. La flexibilité opérationnelle et technique de cet ennemi s’avère d’autant plus problématique qu’une efficacité même relative – une tentative d’attentat avortée, une attaque conduite par un terroriste isolé – permet toujours d’éprouver la cible, de la maintenir en état de tension permanent, de lui imposer de consacrer toujours plus de ressources pour tenter de protéger sa population et répondre aux attentes de cette dernière. Une stratégie qui, comme toute stratégie indirecte, vise moins la victoire par les faits d’armes que par l’effondrement d’une unité politique, les dilemmes et tiraillements moraux, juridiques, et politico-stratégiques ayant raison de sa cohésion nationale.

Si l’essentiel de l’ouvrage est centré sur la lutte contre Daech, il s’achève par des développements stimulants sur les formes renouvelées de la menace dépassant le seul terrorisme islamiste. Guerre cybernétique, diffusion des capacités de frappe de précision et des moyens de déni d’accès, intimidation nucléaire, mettent en tension une posture et un modèle d’armée qui ne peuvent se concentrer exclusivement sur le seul ennemi immédiat, aussi dangereux soit-il. Ainsi, l’effort analytique et communicationnel dont ce livre se fait l’écho en dit long sur le caractère exceptionnel de la situation dans laquelle se trouve la France, et sur l’importance de ces enjeux pour son avenir.

Corentin Brustlein

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Over the last six months, global economic progress has predictably picked up, but low-level growth in some regions has tempered efforts to meet globally agreed development goals, according to a new United Nations report launched today in New York.

During his first working visit to Mali, United Nations peacekeeping chief Jean-Pierre Lacroix met today in the capital, Bamako, with President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita and other senior Malian officials, whom he thanked for their constructive and sustained cooperation with the UN integrated mission in the country, known by the French acronym, MINUSMA.

By Alireza Jafarzadeh

Last Monday, Iranian president Hassan Rouhani rallied his supporters in the northwestern city of Hamedan, where he decried the “violence and extremism” of his hardline opponents ahead of the national elections that are scheduled for May 19th.

In its reporting on the event, the AFP explained that Rouhani has “pushed his liberal credentials” since coming under coordinated attack from hardliners, who emphasize his failure to turn the Iranian economy around after helping to secure relief from international sanctions under the 2015 agreement over the country’s nuclear program.

But this sort of appeal to the progressive attitudes of the young Iranian population is meaningless in light of the previous four years, during which Rouhani presided over a breathtaking orgy of government violence and persecution that earned the condemnation of human rights advocates worldwide, and the dubious distinction of being named the world’s number one state sponsor of terrorism.

It bears noting that the Iranian president holds little real authority, since the supreme leader remains the final authority on all matters of state while all legislation is vetted for conformity with the regime’s fundamentalist interpretation of Islamic law. But Rouhani has not even demonstrated the intention to counter existing hardline policies or to otherwise live up to his liberal-sounding campaign promises.

His administration’s Intelligence Ministry has contributed to the ongoing crackdown against activists, journalists, and supposedly pro-Western or secular social trends. And the administration’s Justice Ministry is headed by a man who is well known for serving as one of the judges that condemned 30,000 political prisoners to death in the summer of 1988.

Rouhani’s leading opponent in the current presidential campaign is the mid-level cleric Ibrahim Raisi and it is notable that he also played a leading role in the implementation of the fatwa that led to that massacre. It is little wonder, then, that the main target of that massacre, the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran, has been organizing a boycott of the election to call attention to the fact that there are no seriously different options to choose between in this or any other Iranian election.

Unfortunately, a surprising number of Western policymakers were eager to embrace Rouhani as a potential source of moderation within the theocratic regime. It is time to change all of that.

The past four years have repeatedly proven the naivety of this position, which led to the nuclear agreement and a slate of associated concessions to the Islamic Republic. Global security and the stability of the Middle East have suffered as a result, as have the Iranian people, who are suffering under the present crackdown being carried out by regime institutions that have gained wealth and influence in the wake of sanctions relief.

Fortunately, the change of leadership in the United States has improved the prospects for a proper response to the forthcoming Iranian election. The administration of President Donald Trump was quick to put Tehran on notice over its illicit tests of ballistic missiles, its destabilizing interference in the affairs of its neighbors, and its provocative gestures toward US naval vessels passing through Middle Eastern waterways.

Since then, US officials have not shied away from calling out Iran’s bad behavior, such as last month when UN Ambassador Nikki Haley appealed to the Security Council to make Iran’s sponsorship of Hezbollah a leading priority in Middle East policy.

Neither Mr. Trump nor his foreign policy advisors have shown any impulse to distinguish President Rouhani from the regime that he serves. On this point the administration is in agreement with the Iranian opposition, which has insisted that there is no real alternative in the Iranian election, since all the candidates are vetted and approved by the mullahs: Iran’s Guardian Council blocks the candidacy of anyone who has not demonstrated strict fealty to the supreme leader and the theocratic system.

This is not to say that there is no difference between Rouhani and Raisi. But although the hardline challenger can be expected to play a more obvious role in the regime’s antagonism of the West, the underlying policy will remain unchanged after this month’s elections, just as it remained unchanged after the last election in 2013.

If any good has come from the past four years of US policy toward Iran, it is a renewed awareness of how little change can be expected in the country even when the most “liberal” faction of Iranian establishment politics has been empowered. Now that the US enjoys newly assertive foreign policy leadership, it is important to recognize that the same way of dealing with the Islamic Republic is called for regardless of the outcome of the May 19th election.

It will then be as important as ever to use sanctions and the support for home-grown democratic movements as a means to undermine the institutions of terrorist sponsorship and domestic repression, and to ultimately encourage the creation of a government wherein electoral choice is not just an illusion.

Alireza Jafarzadeh, deputy director of the Washington office of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, is credited with exposing Iranian nuclear sites in Natanz and Arak in 2002, triggering International Atomic Energy Agency inspections. He is the author of “The Iran Threat” (Palgrave MacMillan: 2008). You can reach him at: Jafarzadeh@ncrius.org.

The post Iran’s Election Offers Voters Only a Rubber Stamp appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Two senior US intelligence officials reacted with dismay after learning moments before taking the stage at a speaking event in New York that the director of the FBI, James Comey, had been fired.

“James Comey has been officially fired,” said Charles McGonigal, special agent in charge of the FBI’s counterintelligence division at its New York field office. He spoke alongside William Evanina, director of the Counterintelligence and Security Center at an event organized by the Foreign Policy Association.

“I think we both felt that Director Comey was probably one of the most loved leaders that we’ve had in a number of years commanding a leadership role in the FBI,” McGonigal said. “I think many of us who were nominated for leadership positions by him will forever hold him in esteem as we progress through our FBI careers.”

President Donald Trump made the decision Tuesday to terminate Comey, who assumed the role as the US’s top law enforcement official in 2013. The White House’s account of Trump’s reasoning for the move has varied, but it immediately caused alarm that the president was attempting to curb a FBI investigation into Russia’s meddling in last year’s election and whether his campaign colluded with that effort.

The event was billed to cover foreign influence operations and counterintelligence, and Comey’s dismissal added gravity to the topics the intelligence officials covered.

The two sought to set the record straight about the extent of Russia’s election operation.

“No voting machine was hacked during the election. That is a fact,” McGonigal said.

“The precincts were not connected,” Evanina added. “At the end of the day and looking toward the next presidential election, this will end up helping us because of a lack of connectivity.”

McGonigal, who leads 150 counterintelligence agents in New York, told anecdotes about his career investigating traditional and economic espionage and technology proliferation cases. He said that of the 14 million visitors that come through John F. Kennedy Airport every year, he is certain that “non-traditional collectors,” individuals obtaining information for a foreign government, are among them.

“The FBI is aware that there are non-traditional collectors coming into the country for the sole purpose of collecting information,” he said. “ We are very mindful of that. We do our best to screen that, keeping in mid the rights and privacy of individuals traveling in the United States.”

On the other hand, Evanina said at NCSC his “optic is to drive strategic policy guidance for counterintelligence security across the US government.” He said that every year his organization creates a strategy signed by the president that is sent to the wider intelligence community including the FBI, CIA and NSA.

When inspecting a suspicious email, he said, take extra time to determine a link is legitimate by hovering the mouse over it and analyze what it is linked to. Over half of American adults have been victimized by theft of personal identifiable information, according to Evanina. More than 90 percent of those thefts occurred from spear phishing, or sending emails linked to malware.

When traveling overseas and a link is clicked on a foreign government’s internet or cell network, malware can be installed that allows that government to “own your phone forever,” Evanina said.

“When you turn your phone on, your phone is now the property of wherever you landed,” he added. “Not just your phone. Your emails, your texts, your database, your contacts is owned by them.”

He ultimately suggested buying a simple, cheap phone when going abroad and saving key contact numbers for the trip.

***

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The post US Intel Officials: Comey Was ‘One Of The Most Loved Leaders’ appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Poverty continues to impact the lives of Middle Eastern and Northern African children, according to new analysis from the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), which highlights that millions of the region’s young people live without quality health care or decent housing.

A flurry of recent intolerant and provocative rhetoric has further damaged the trust between Kosovo and Serbia – a development that must be closely watched – though the situation remains generally stable, the head of the United Nations peacekeeping mission in Kosovo told the Security Council today.

Two-thirds of internally displaced Ukrainians are struggling financially; many without even enough money for food, according to the latest report by the United Nations migration agency on the situation in the crisis-torn country.

The United Nations migration agency today warned that while hundreds of thousands of people displaced from Mosul have braved the ongoing offensive to oust the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/Da’esh), the beleaguered citizens are now struggling to cope with another danger – the sweltering summer heat.

Deeply concerned by the continued increase in conflict-related child deaths in Afghanistan, the UN Assistance Mission in the country (UNAMA) has urged parties to the conflict to take immediate measures to reduce harm.

Cette recension a été publiée dans le numéro de printemps de Politique étrangère (n°1/2017). Matthieu Tardis, chercheur au Centre Citoyennetés et Migrations de l’Ifri, propose une analyse de l’ouvrage de William Maley, What is a Refugee? (Hurst, 2016, 280 pages).

L’ouvrage de William Maley explique et rétablit la complexité des causes à l’origine des mouvements forcés de population.

Sans États, les réfugiés, qui sont le produit de l’ordre westphalien établi en 1648, n’existeraient pas. Cet ordre consacre la souveraineté des États nations et les réfugiés sont les « autres », ceux que l’on expulse pour asseoir une prétendue homogénéité du peuple ou une idéologie. Les réfugiés sont également les victimes des échecs et des défaillances d’États en décomposition. La Paix de Westphalie est un accord sur les frontières ; elle n’instaure pas le contrôle de ces frontières. Celui-ci se développe plus tard avec la création des passeports, des visas, et enfin de bureaucraties dont les missions sont de traiter de manière rationnelle et mécanique des situations relevant de l’humanisme et de la compassion.

Pour autant, selon William Maley, les États font aussi partie de la solution. La question des réfugiés est une affaire de diplomates, en particulier lorsqu’il s’agit de partager les responsabilités de l’accueil. La diplomatie a toutefois ses limites. Si des organisations internationales comme le Haut Commissariat des Nations unies pour les réfugiés proposent un cadre de négociation, l’auteur souligne que l’asymétrie des puissances n’est pas favorable à une plus grande solidarité avec les pays pauvres qui accueillent le plus grand nombre de réfugiés dans le monde. La diplomatie a également ses contradictions. L’accord entre l’Union européenne et la Turquie de mars 2016 constitue un cas d’école, où un ensemble de 500 millions d’habitants représentant un quart de la richesse mondiale se place en position de faiblesse face à son voisin turc pour des considérations de court terme.

L’auteur ne présente pas l’utilisation de la force ou les interventions humanitaires comme intrinsèquement contraires au système westphalien. À l’inverse, il rappelle les travaux de la Commission internationale de l’intervention et de la souveraineté des États au début des années 2000. Ils ont souligné que la souveraineté des États leur imposait des responsabilités. La première est de protéger les populations au niveau interne comme au niveau international. La Responsabilité de protéger remet ce concept de protection au centre de la question des réfugiés. Au fil des nombreuses références historiques qui parcourent l’ouvrage, nous apprenons d’ailleurs que ce concept constituait la pierre angulaire de la définition de réfugié, proposée par les premières conventions internationales sur ce sujet avant la Seconde Guerre mondiale. Les rédacteurs de la Convention du 28 juillet 1951, relative au statut des réfugiés, lui préféreront la notion, plus restreinte, de persécution.

L’auteur regrette que l’intervention en Libye en 2011 ait profondément endommagé cette Responsabilité de protéger. De même, il souligne que l’hospitalité n’est pas un attribut de l’État, mais une relation humaine. L’ouvrage est rythmé par nombre d’histoires et de récits individuels du passé et d’aujourd’hui. Professeur à Canberra, William Maley puise ses exemples dans les conséquences les plus absurdes, et souvent tragiques, de la politique d’asile australienne, présentée par un nombre croissant de responsables européens comme un modèle. En somme, What Is a Refugee? présente la question des réfugiés de manière exhaustive, en restant accessible et surtout sans jamais perdre de vue le véritable enjeu : la protection de l’intégrité et de la dignité de la vie humaine.

Matthieu Tardis

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The United Nations refugee agency today confirmed that for only the third time this year, its field teams were able to distribute humanitarian aid in the embattled district of Mokha, in Yemen&#39s Red Sea governorate of Taiz.

The deaths of more than 1.2 million adolescents every year &#8211 about 3,000 per day &#8211 could have been prevented with good health services, education and social support, the United Nations health agency today reported.

With some 1,000 Palestinians held in Israeli jails on hunger strike for a second month, an independent United Nations expert vising the region today called on Israel to comply with international law and standards for detention.

The United Nations human rights chief today expressed grave alarm over the spread of violence by armed groups against the civilian population in several parts of the Central African Republic in recent months, as well as attacks against UN peacekeepers in the country&#39s southeast.

The United Nations health agency is deploying technical experts to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) amid an outbreak of Ebola virus near its northern border with the Central Africa Republic, the agency’s regional director for Africa confirmed.

(Own report) - German Minister of the Interior, Thomas de Maizière, is calling for the deployment of an EU border protection mission along Libya's border with Niger. Because, so far, efforts to seal the border have not had the desired results, further steps must be taken and "fact-finding missions" should be dispatched to the Libyan-Nigerien desert, de Maizière and his Italian counterpart wrote last week in a letter addressed to the EU Commission. By exerting political pressure and offering training programs, Berlin and Brussels had - successfully - induced the Nigerien repressive organs to intervene against undesirable migrants. However, as was to have been expected, the migrants are now taking alternative - and much more dangerous - routes. According to local human rights groups, this is a direct consequence of European pressure leading to a significant rise in the number of deaths along the transit route through the Sahara. Observers report that the EU is proposing agricultural projects to the impoverished town of Agadez, situated in the middle of the desert - an absurd substitution for its loss of income through the lucrative migration business.

Although global understanding of sexual violence in conflict is shifting, there remains the need to tackle the root causes of such violations that lie in fundamental inequality and discrimination against women, Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed told the United Nations Security Council today.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres today urged Pyongyang to return to the path of denuclearization saying the latest ballistic missile launch by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) is a threat to peace and security in the region.

A tax plan that U.S. President Donald Trump produced in April suggested the biggest tax cuts for rich Americans in the United States’ history—and was bad news for the middle class.