Diplomacy & Crisis News

Describing the situation in Yemen as &#8220very bleak,&#8221 with &#8220no end in sight,&#8221 a senior United Nations official envoy today said the war-torn country, already reeling from malnutrition and dwindling health care, is plummeting into further distress amid a deadly cholera outbreak and looming famine.

The wisdom, experience, energy and ideals of the old and the young are vital to realizing the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said today, stressing that they together can help break the cycles of poverty that have lasted for generations.

The top United Nations human rights official today expressed deep concern about the detention of two opposition leaders by Venezuelan authorities after Sunday&#39s elections for a Constituent Assembly convened by President Nicolás Maduro.

Kicking off World Breastfeeding Week, the United Nations today stressed that although breastfeeding has cognitive and health benefits for infants and mothers, investment shortcomings impede the practice.

The United Nations has scaled up its efforts to tackle the humanitarian crisis in northeast Nigeria, through a visit by its top migration official and the allocation of $10.5 million from a new fund.

The conflict in South Sudan has to end in order to give the peace process there &#8220a better chance of success,&#8221 the top United Nations peacekeeping official said today, kicking off a three-day trip to the African country.

Début novembre, les rebelles du M23 annonçaient l'arrêt de leur action militaire. Pourtant, l'est de la République démocratique du Congo n'a pas retrouvé la paix. / Afrique, République démocratique du Congo, Rwanda, Conflit, Guérilla, Violence, Ouganda, Matières premières, Guerre civile, Afrique des (...) / Afrique, République démocratique du Congo, Rwanda, Conflit, Guérilla, Violence, Ouganda, Matières premières, Guerre civile, Afrique des Grands Lacs - 2014/01

ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin, 2011 (RBC)

As CNN reports, U.S. “companies from the oil, energy, banking, aerospace, auto and heavy manufacturing industries” have been lobbying against the new Russia sanctions legislation currently making its way through Congress, arguing that it could harm their business interests. Since the Trump administration’s efforts at weakening the bill appear to have failed, Russia is now pinning its hopes on opposition from U.S. corporations and from the European Union to avoid tightened U.S. sanctions.

In addition to new sanctions aimed at punishing Russia for its interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, human rights violations, and aggression toward Russia’s neighbors, the bill limits the president’s ability to ease sanctions without congressional approval. This sets up a tough choice for Trump: Sign the bill and accept limitations on his authority to control U.S. policy regarding Russia, or veto it and risk accusations that he is doing the Kremlin’s bidding. The “Trump-proof” sanctions bill has strong bipartisan support in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, and a Trump veto would further risk a humiliating override vote in Congress.

Russia views the bill “extremely negatively,” and Russian media have been quick to grasp at U.S. corporate opposition to tightened sanctions. For international audiences, corporate opposition to the bill has been reported in English at Pravda, Sputnik, and RT, emphasizing its potential harm to U.S. and international business interests. As these reports note, U.S. corporations opposing or seeking changes in the bill include ExxonMobil, General Electric, Boeing, Ford, Dow Chemical, Citigroup, Visa, and MasterCard.

ExxonMobil, incidentally, was recently fined $2 million by the U.S. Treasury Department for violating sanctions on Russia while current U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was the company’s CEO. While at ExxonMobil Tillerson met with Russian President Vladimir Putin numerous times following their first meeting in 1999, and condemned U.S. sanctions on Russia following Russia’s attack on Ukraine and annexation of Crimea in 2014. Tillerson’s former role at ExxonMobil and his relationship with Russia have raised conflict of interest concerns regarding his current role as Secretary of State. Tillerson has been vocal in his criticism of the current sanctions bill.

Reports in English from Russian media also note European Union concerns and warnings that “unintended consequences” may result from “unilateral tightening of Russia sanctions.” German Chancellor Angela Merkel is quoted calling the sanctions “a peculiar move” by the United States. Concerned particularly that tightened sanctions on Russia might impact Europe’s energy sector, the EU has indeed expressed alarm at the bill, urging the United States to coordinate sanctions with its European partners. EU opposition to tightened U.S. sanctions on Russia comes despite evident Russian interference in European as well as U.S. elections.

U.S. corporate opposition to tightened sanctions on Russia has also been widely reported in Russian-language media for domestic audiences. American industrialists are “tired of the persecution of Russia,” says Pravda TV, “and demand that their own business interests be protected.” Pravda TV also notes EU corporate opposition to tightened U.S. sanctions on Russia: “The presence of these restrictions for most business people on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean is a major headache. Business seeks to resolve this issue and return to traditional business relations.”

Russia’s interference in the 2016 U.S. election and suspicions regarding possible collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign have put considerable pressure on Congress and the White House to take strong measures against Russia. Both in Russia and in American and European corporate circles, however, the hope seems to be that multinational business interests will prevail over the interests of American democracy and national security.

The post Russia Pins Hopes on U.S. Corporations to Ease Sanctions appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Cette recension a été publiée dans le numéro d’été de Politique étrangère (n°2/2017). Rémy Hémez, chercheur au Laboratoire de recherche sur la défense (LRD) de l’Ifri, propose une analyse de l’ouvrage de Seth G. Jones, Waging Insurgent Warfare: Lessons from the Vietcong to the Islamic State (Oxford University Press, 2017, 352 pages).

Seth G. Jones est directeur de l’International Security and Policy Center de la Rand, professeur à l’université Johns Hopkins et auteur du remarqué In the Graveyard of Empires: America’s War in Afghanistan (2009). Il offre dans son dernier ouvrage un intéressant panorama de la guerre insurrectionnelle. Ce livre se veut un manuel aidant à la compréhension des conflits asymétriques, un pont entre une démarche académique et une approche de terrain, et un complément à des études qui se focaliseraient trop souvent sur la contre-insurrection plutôt que sur l’insurrection. L’auteur définit l’insurrection comme « une campagne politique et militaire d’un groupe (ou de groupes) non étatique(s) pour renverser un régime ou pour faire sécession ».

L’approche quantitative est largement utilisée par Seth G. Jones. Il s’appuie sur une base de données de 181 guerres insurrectionnelles qui se sont déroulées entre 1946 et 2015. Pour chaque insurrection, une centaine de facteurs sont pris en compte tels que l’issue de la guerre, le nombre de partisans, les buts de l’insurrection, le type d’organisation, etc. L’auteur arrive à des résultats qui suscitent la réflexion. Par exemple : une insurrection dure en moyenne 12 ans ; elle se termine dans 36 % des cas par une victoire des forces gouvernementales, à 35 % par celle des insurgés et à 29 % par un « nul ». Ce qui signifie que dans 71 % des cas, ce n’est pas un accord de paix mais bien les armes qui décident du sort d’une insurrection. La liste des cas étudiés est reproduite à la fin du livre avec quelques informations qui peuvent laisser le lecteur sur sa faim. Il est dommage que la totalité de la base de données ne soit pas disponible en ligne pour mieux comprendre certains résultats et permettre d’autres recherches.

Jones passe en revue six thèmes clés pour l’analyse des insurrections. Le premier concerne leurs débuts et permet d’étudier les facteurs permettant leur développement ou leur échec. Le deuxième thème est celui des stratégies mises en œuvre. Trois approches sont distinguées : guérilla, guerre conventionnelle et stratégie punitive. Vient ensuite l’étude des tactiques : embuscades, raids, assassinats ciblés, subversion, etc. L’auteur souligne le fait que, pour le moment, aucun mouvement utilisant les attaques-suicides n’est parvenu à renverser un gouvernement. Cela serait notamment dû au fait que ce genre d’attaques entraînerait une perte de soutien populaire. Le quatrième sujet est celui des structures organisationnelles. Les avantages et inconvénients de la centralisation ou de la décentralisation sont mis en avant. Le cinquième thème renvoie à la propagande et aux opérations d’information. Enfin, l’issue des insurrections est étudiée. Le soutien direct au combat d’un État extérieur est essentiel pour obtenir la victoire. En revanche, étonnamment, avoir une zone refuge n’augmenterait pas les chances de succès. Dans la dernière partie de son livre, l’auteur tire de ses recherches des conclusions intéressantes quant aux opérations de contre-insurrection.

Dans un style très clair et faisant preuve d’un vrai talent analytique, Seth G. Jones offre ainsi un outil précieux pour tous ceux qui s’intéressent aux insurrections, que ce soit du point de vue de l’historien militaire, de l’analyste des conflits contemporains ou du praticien.

Rémy Hémez

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Mobile broadband subscriptions are expected to reach 4.3 billion globally by the end of 2017, according to a new report released by the United Nations telecommunications agency.

Waves of violent conflict in the Greater Kasai region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have forced more than one million people, including hundreds of thousands of children from their homes, the United Nations Children&#39s Fund (UNICEF) has reported.

The top United Nations peacekeeping official is in the Central African Republic where he today discussed the security situation and the political process, while paying homage to three UN &#39blue helmets&#39 killed in the line of duty in recent days.

A group of United Nations experts has urged the Government of the Philippines to immediately address reported human rights violations, including murder, threats against indigenous peoples and the summary execution of children.

Park rangers across the world face increasing challenges and risks due to a surge in poaching and illicit trafficking in wildlife, the head of the United Nations entity on protection of endangered species today said, honouring the work of park rangers in protecting wild animals, plants and culture.

The United Nations political mission in Afghanistan today denounced an attack on the embassy of Iraq saying it is another attack aimed at the international community but where Afghan civilians bear the brunt of the violence.

The fight against racism must be unremitting to be successful, according to the oldest of the United Nations treaty-monitoring bodies, which opened its latest session in Geneva today.

The United Nations human rights office has expressed regret that at least 10 people died in Venezuela over the weekend amid clashes between security forces and protestors opposing the Constituent Assembly elections, a spokesman for the Secretary-General said today.

Figure de rhétorique réactionnaire, la thèse de l'effet pervers réapparaît aujourd'hui sur le sujet des économies d'énergie et des énergies renouvelables. / Allemagne, États-Unis, France, Écologie, Énergie, Technologie, Environnement - (...) / Allemagne, États-Unis, France, Écologie, Énergie, Technologie, Environnement - 2014/01

Ni les décennies ni le bouleversement de l'ordre politique n'ont vieilli le travail de Wojciech Zamecznik (1923-1967). Car l'école polonaise de l'affiche, dont il fut l'un des chefs de file, reste caractérisée par la modernité et l'autonomie de ses productions. Parallèlement à l'exposition organisée (...) / Pologne, Art, Photographie - 2017/08

Top intelligence and administration officials answer questions about the 2016 presidential election.