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One of the country’s biggest Chinese celebrations/ (BBC/Lottie Davies)

This past week many Taiwanese flocked to their hometowns to celebrate the Chinese tradition of Duānwǔjié, or the Dragon Boat Festival.

The festival is held every year to commemorate the death of the Chinese poet and minister Qu Yuan (c. 340–278 BC), who chose to drown himself in a river rather than see his country invaded and conquered by the State of Qin.

During the Warring States period of the Zhou Dynasty, Minister Qu Yuan had warned against a Chu alliance with the Qin, the most powerful of the Warring States, and was subsequently banished for his beliefs. Legend has it villagers raced their boats to search for him and then threw rice into the water to distract the fish away from his body.

To honor his death, many Taiwanese eat zongzi, a glutinous rice stuffed with different fillings and wrapped in bamboo, which represents the rice thrown into the river.

Other Taiwanese were celebrating a less traditional occasion—a landmark ruling by a constitutional court, coming just days before the start of the festival, granting Taiwan’s same-sex couples the right to marry. The ruling is the first such in traditionally conservative Asia.

On the more socially conservative mainland, the ruling drew criticism. Xinhua, China’s state-run media agency, said the decision had “caused controversy”—despite China having a similar “equality before the law” provision in its own constitution.

The China Digital Times, which monitors mainland censorship, found state directives instructing: “News regarding ‘Taiwan becoming a legal area for same-sex marriage, raises sensitive political and social issues. Do not hype this story. Regarding terms such as constitution, Judicial Yuan, Legislative Yuan, President, etc., take note to use quotation marks. Make sure not to present Taiwan as a different political entity than the Chinese mainland.”

The ruling also prompted one Chinese academic to urge Taiwanese parents to move to China to protect their children from AIDS, according to Reuters.

The court decision is the latest example of a progressive Taiwan growing apart from a more restrictive mainland. Following eight years of relative calm, President Tsai Ing-Wen‘s entry into office in May 2016 strained cross-Strait relations—her election prompted Beijing to formally cut communication with Taiwan and to actively discourage mainland Chinese from visiting the island.

Tensions heightened noticeably following her phone call last December with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, marking the first time an American president or president-elect spoke publicly to a Taiwanese leader since the U.S. ended their formal diplomatic relationship in 1979. Yet with U.S. President Trump now seeking Beijing’s help in dealing with a recalcitrant North Korea, some China-watchers now believe Taiwan’s interest may be bargained away in a grand U.S. deal with Beijing.

Before Trump was elected, some 88% of Taiwanese believed their military was incapable of defending Taiwan from an attack by China, and more than 47% thought the U.S. would come to their rescue, according to the 2016 Taiwan National Security Survey (TNSS) conducted by the Election Study Center of National Chengchi University.

The TNSS survey also revealed almost 70% of Taiwanese agreed that Taiwan is already an independent nation and its name is the Republic of China (ROC), with no need to seek further independence. Nearly 83% supported a peace agreement with the mainland whereby Taipei will pledge not to seek independence and Beijing promises not to attack Taiwan.

True, Taiwan can take some solace from the current Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), the three U.S.-PRC Communiqués (the 1972 Shanghai Communiqué, the 1979 Joint Communiqué on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations and the August 17, 1982 Joint Communiqué on Arms Sales to Taiwan) and President Ronald Reagan’s “Six Assurances”. Yet the TRA is not an tight, indisputable security pact and President Trump seemingly opposes military alliances with those who don’t spend heavily on their military.

According to a recent op-ed in the New York Times, Enoch Y. Wu, a former noncommissioned officer in the Taiwanese Army special forces, claims Taiwan’s active force is less than 200,000, having fallen from 400,000 in 1996, and that the nearly two million reservists are under equipped and need retraining.

Even if President Trump decides to come to Taiwan’s rescue in the event of an attack, he’ll need to convince his electorate. After lengthy U.S. military campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, polls show consistent low levels of support for military intervention—only 28% of Americans would support the use of U.S. troops to defend Taiwan in a conflict with China.

The post Taiwan Turns Further Away from the Mainland appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

A painting commemorating the death of Qu Yuan

China’s Dragon Boat Festival came immediately the day after the U.S.’ own Memorial Day this year. Certainly, both these dates are occasions to reflect on the meaning of patriotism for both China and the U.S., respectively.

However, the Dragon Boat Festival’s origin combined with the recent passing of Zbigniew Brzezinski only serve to highlight the larger lesson of placing a state’s long-term strategic vision over incessant political infighting.

The Legacy of Qu Yuan

Today’s Dragon Boat Festival in China is said to commemorate the life and (especially) the death of Qu Yuan. Qu was a statesman and poet exemplar in the employ of the Kingdom of Chu during China’s Warring States Period. Reportedly, many of Qu’s fellow ministers at the Royal Court were jealous of his intellectual brilliance and subsequently slandered him. This led to his first exile by his king.

Luckily, Qu was eventually recalled from this initial exile to restart negotiations between Chu and fellow state Qi. These negotiations were seen as critical to Chu’s survival.

Unfortunately for Qu, he was soon after sent into his second and final exile due to incessant slandering on the part of Chu’s Prime Minister. During this time of reflection, Qu returned to his hometown and penned many of his now legendary poetic works, some specifically addressing Chu’s many problems. During this time, Qu learned of the capture of Chu’s capital by yet another rival state, Qin. Upon hearing of this, Qu reportedly waded into a river holding a heavy rock, thereby committing suicide.

According to legend, many of the villagers tried to save him by racing toward him in dragon boats. However, they were too late and it is said that Qu’s spirit told them to offer rice to the river’s fish to keep them away from his remains.

This story is quite old and many details of it are sketchy simply due to it taking place in antiquity. In Western lore, a rough analogy might be Socrates’ taking of hemlock. However, what is not in dispute is that the story has had quite an impact on many Chinese throughout the ages as to the true meaning of patriotism and self-sacrifice.

The Grand Chessboard Lives On

While the names of the states of Chu, Qi, and Qin may seem irrelevant and arcane to some, they are quite germane to geopolitics as it relates to relations between the U.S., China, and Russia today.

To this end, the world recently saw the untimely death of Zbigniew Brzezinski, former scholar and National Security Advisor to President Jimmy Carter. In essence, Brzezinski was not only able to adroitly grasp the growing rift in Sino-Russian relations during the Cold War, but also was successful in advising his king on how to exploit this situation.

Building upon the foundation which President Richard Nixon and his own National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger’s 1972 Beijing visit represented, Brzezinski articulated the necessity to Carter of strengthening U.S.-China ties based on shared interests (not values) in weakening the Former Soviet Union’s global position. This, in turn, led to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the Soviets’ eventual withdrawal from the country and, arguably, the eventual dissolution of the Former Soviet Union itself, leaving the U.S. as the world’s sole superpower.

This story is not over, however, because the story of geopolitics itself is never truly over as the world never stops spinning. The U.S.’ brief moment of unipolarity following the end of the Cold War is now over as the country is in relative decline as other centers of power emerge (or re-emerge in the case of China) around the world. This has led, of course, to many differing points of view within the U.S. foreign policy establishment regarding the best way to relate to China (engagement vs. containment vs. “congagement”, etc.).

Slandering and Political Infighting is a Timeless Art

Sadly, slandering and associated partisanship is by no means a strictly ancient phenomenon relegated to the time of Qu Yuan. Today’s multipolar world and the quickening pace of globalization mirror both China’s Warring States and Japan’s own Sengoku Jidai periods. While many within Washington are still trying to decide if the Cold War with Russia is actually over, other states like China are moving forward with massive new initiatives like “One Belt, One Road“.

The mere perception of possible and actual U.S. withdrawal from global commitments (NATO, TPP, climate change and arms control treaties, etc.) without an overarching vision of how the U.S. intends to realize its foreign policy strategic goals have left allies, partners, and adversaries alike all reeling. This lack of strategic focus now, combined with interminable, unproductive, and scandalous accusations within Washington itself, has the potential in the long-term to leave the U.S. at the mercy of an even more unforgiving and vicious world in the future.

The post Qu Yuan, Zbigniew Brzezinski, & Why Strategy is Necessary for Survival appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

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