Diplomacy & Crisis News

(Own report) - The German government is negotiating new German Turkish arms deals, as was confirmed by the German Ministry of Economics. Brigitte Zypries (SPD), Minister of the Economy, spoke with the CEO of Rheinmetall weapons manufacturer about upgrading the Turkish Leopard battle tank. "In principle," such deals with NATO partners "can not to be restricted," according to Berlin. The German government is also seeking to re-invigorate German-Turkish economic cooperation, to strengthen bilateral relations. Germany does not want to loose Turkey as a "bridge" connecting Germany and the EU to the Middle East. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Ankara is not only strengthening the country's economy and, in the long run, make it one of the world's top ten economies ("Vision 2023"), he is also planning to transform the country into an independent regional power, forming alliances as it chooses - no longer dependent on the western states. The reorientation of its foreign policy is accompanied by the country's transformation into a presidential dictatorship.

(Own report) - German business associations are calling on the EU Commission to end its Brexit provocations. An unorderly Brexit would entail enormous costs for the German economy, the President of the German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) warned; therefore an amicable Brexit agreement with London must be reached. The Federation of German Industries (BDI) expressed a similar view. The head of the EU's Commission's recent audacious financial demands and deliberate indiscretions have stirred massive resentment in the United Kingdom and were rightfully considered an attempt to influence Britain's upcoming parliamentary elections. Observers attribute these indiscretions to EU Commissioner Jean-Claude Juncker's German Chief of Staff, Martin Selmayr (CDU), who is currently playing a key role in the Commission's Brexit negotiations' preparations. The German Chancellery is now calling for restraint in view of the severe damage a hard Brexit could entail for the German economy.

(Own report) - In Southeast Europe, Berlin and the EU are facing a setback in their power struggle with Russia. The Republic of Moldova, once the EU's "model for Eastern Partnerships" - that has been officially associated with the EU since July 1, 2016 - is slowly fading away from Berlin and Brussels' influence. Once pro-Russian President Igor Dodon assumed office, in December 2016, the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) granted observer status to this small southeastern European country. According to recent polls, Dodon's pro-Russian party could expect a clear majority in next year's parliamentary elections. The perspective of a comprehensive rejection of the EU and full admission to the EAEU would no longer be ruled out. This development is the result of Berlin and Brussels' having relied on despised oligarchs, to insure their influence in the Moldovan Republic. One of these, currently in control of the government, seeks to maintain power by changing the voting laws.

(Own report) - In the prelude to Chancellor Merkel's visit to Russia, German business associations and foreign policy experts are urging that the policy of sanctions be ended. They argue that sanctions practically have become ineffective, since Russia's economy has withstood these trade restrictions and is now even recovering. The boycott has also damaged the EU's image and that of the USA in Russia and, even though intended to weaken, it has helped to stabilize the Russian government. Moreover, Russian orders, that German businesses had once expected, were increasingly going to competitors, for example in China - and are ultimately lost. However, German economists still see Russia as a lucrative market. According to an analysis by the Bertelsmann Foundation and Munich's ifo Institute, a free-trade agreement between the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), congregated around Russia, would generate a growth of 45 billion euros. Government advisors recommend that the sanctions policy be gradually ended. This would not eliminate the prospect that Moscow, at any time, could be forced to its knees with an arms race.

(Own report) - This Sunday, Chancellor Angela Merkel is expected in the Saudi capital Riyadh for talks on the wars in Syria and Yemen, according to the Saudi media. Her talks in the Golf monarchy will therefore focus not only on expanding economic relations but on the proxy wars, Saudi Arabia is currently waging against Iran. Berlin supports Riyadh in these proxy wars - politically but also with the supply of weapons proven to have been used in Yemen. Saudi Arabia is strongly criticized for its war in Yemen, which is causing numerous civilian casualties. In addition, Riyadh's maritime blockade of Yemeni ports is causing a famine. 2.2 million children are malnourished, including half a million who are severely malnourished and at imminent risk of death. In March, Berlin authorized the delivery of supplementary German patrol boats to Saudi Arabia, in spite of them being used to enforce the maritime blockade. Aid organizations are sounding the alarm.

(Own report) - Berlin's favorite candidate took the lead in the first round in Sunday's French presidential elections. According to the latest predictions, Emmanuel Macron won with 23.4 percent of the votes, followed by Marine Le Pen of the Front National with 22.6. Macron is expected to win the May 7 runoffs. Initially, the German government had banked on and openly promoted the conservative candidate François Fillon. However, after his approval ratings significantly dropped in the polls, due to the scandal over high payments to his wife as his parliamentary assistant, Berlin was forced to turn to Macron. Like Fillon, Macron is considered "Germany-compatible" by a German think tank, whereas all other candidates are viewed as unsuitable for "constructive cooperation" because of their criticism of the EU and/or of NATO. Recently, Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble ostentatiously recommended voting for Macron. Berlin's interference on behalf of Macron shows once again that German domination of the EU does not stop at national borders, and - according to a well-known EU observer - surpasses by far Russia's feeble meddling in France.

(Own report) - Moderate business success and lack of unity among the leading western powers are affecting Germany's current policy toward Iran. Last year, German companies were able to significantly expand their business with Iran; however, they did not achieve the ambitious level they had been hoping to reach. Despite the 25 percent increase in German exports to Iran, it seems unlikely that the aspired export volume of ten billion euros will be reached in the next few years. The strong market position of the People's Republic of China - which had not joined the western sanctions - is one of the reasons. Russia also has gained considerable influence and can not only hope for contracts in the oil and natural gas sectors, but also for the expansion of the broad gauge railway network up to the Persian Gulf. Whereas the United States does not want to abandon its military trump and prefers to persist in war threats, the German government is seeking to serve as mediator in the unrelenting hegemonic conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran. However, no breakthrough is in sight.

(Own report) - In light of the drastic warnings of the EU's possible disintegration, Berlin seeks to prevent the formation of contending forces. "The European Union is drifting apart to an extent hardly imaginable 15 years ago," according to a recent analysis, written by a board member of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). The "dividing lines" between the north and the impoverishing south, as well as between western and eastern EU member countries are disquieting. To prevent the formation of a southern European bloc opposing the German austerity dictate, Berlin is particularly trying to integrate France into its EU policy. Yesterday, the German chancellor sought closer cooperation with the Czech Republic and Slovakia, to undermine an alliance of the Visegrád members against German predominance. At the same time, promotion of the EU has been intensified within Germany. German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel explained how Germany ultimately profits from its net contributions to the EU budget: The success of German exports depends on "the people in the other EU countries" being able "to afford" German products - with the help of Brussels' subsidies.

(Own report) - German military specialists are evaluating the growing significance of the Baltic and the Black Seas in the West's power struggle with Moscow. These two "marginal seas" are of great importance to Russia, according to a recent analysis published in the specialized periodical "MarineForum." Whereas the Baltic Sea serves Russian maritime trade as a "gateway to the Atlantic," the Russian Navy needs the Black Sea as a strategically central "diving board into the Mediterranean," facilitating Russia to gain influence from the Middle East all the way to the Indian Ocean. Whereas NATO controls the access to both "marginal seas," Moscow is seeking to consolidate its strategic positions, and to better extend its reach from the Black Sea into the Mediterranean. NATO is seeking countermeasures to again confine Russia, the MarineForum writes. Germany is also expanding its activities in and at the Black Sea and is inviting allied navies to participate in joint maneuvers in the Baltic Sea.

(Own report) - With last Saturday's "Rome Declaration", the EU has declared its commitment to an offensive global policy, including an intensified militarization, as was demanded by Berlin. In the coming years, the Union must play "a key role in the world," the declaration states, while calling for "strengthening its common security and defence." At the same time, German government advisors are vigorously demanding that the militarization decisions already taken, be rapidly implemented. Berlin and Paris could conclude a joint 40 billion euro program for new measures for dealing with "missions, procurement, capabilities and counter-terrorism," according to a document published by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). The Bundeswehr could also integrate troops from other EU countries to form "a sort of Europe Division." On the weekend, Hungary's foreign minister affirmed his country's support. In a recent resolution, the European Parliament stressed the need for increasing military spending with an extra €100 billion by the end of the coming decade. Couched in the usual propaganda phraseology, the "Rome Declaration" states "we have united for the better."

(Own report) - Berlin and Brussels are intensifying their pressure on London prior to next Wednesday's official Brexit notification. "Britain's example" will make all others see "it's not worth leaving," European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker declared. According to Brussels, the Brexit could cost the United Kingdom up to 60 billion euros. London sharply objects to this impertinence, pointing out that, the EU and particularly Germany, are dependent, for economic and military considerations, on consensual exit regulations. German industry would in fact be hit hard by a hostile British exit. Britain is Germany's export-oriented economy's third largest customer and second largest location for German direct investments. For quite some time, Berlin also has set its hopes on Great Britain's contribution to the EU's militarization - even after Brexit - because of the military clout of its armed forces and its nuclear arms.

(Own report) - Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel and Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe opened the CeBIT digital trade fair in Hanover on Sunday, emphasizing their commitment to expand German-Japanese cooperation. Japan is "a friend," Merkel declared, with whom one can advance in promoting digitalization. Japan had once been the Federal Republic of Germany's most important East Asian business partner, but, in terms of German foreign investments and trade, it has fallen far behind China over the past few years. Even though strategically highly significant, from a German point of view, economic relations have been stagnating. A counterweight to Beijing in East Asia would be advantageous for Berlin's foreign policy. Germany has therefore begun to expand military cooperation with the Japanese armed forces. During his visit in Tokyo last November, Germany's President, at the time, Joachim Gauck, explicitly encouraged Japan's rearmament, which is pointed directly at China. Having taken a sharp nationalist course, the Japanese government will send a new helicopter carrier to train with the US Navy in the South China Sea in May.

(Own report) - Scotland has established an investment center in Berlin, thereby reinforcing its economic ties to the EU and causing - with German support - new tension in Great Britain. According to critics, in its intended secession from the United Kingdom, for which it must establish economic security, the Scottish government is relying on German help. In fact, to increase the pressure on London to achieve the "softest" Brexit possible, Berlin and Germany's regional governments are going out of their way to strengthen relations with Edinburgh. This is considered essential to German interests. Government advisors in Berlin are recommending using Ireland for obtaining influence in the negotiations concerning the borders between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland. In the event of a "hard" Brexit, this border would be a particularly sensitive point. Berlin is also using EU foreigners, residing in the United Kingdom, as an additional bargaining chip. Chancellor Angela Merkel has refused to have their rights of residence clarified beforehand.

(Own report) - In spite of the Turkish government's recent provocations, Berlin is steadfastly maintaining its cooperation with Ankara. Over the past few days, members of the Turkish government have affronted several EU countries as "fascist," thereby again provoking sharp protests. For some time, human rights organizations and other critics of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan have been up in arms over Ankara's brutal violations of human and civil rights, its attempt to establish a presidential dictatorship and its arbitrary incarceration of citizens of foreign countries. Last week, Chancellor Angela Merkel declared that her objective was to prevent Turkey from "becoming even more alienated from us," which is why we must persist in our cooperation. Since some time, government advisors in Germany's capital have been warning that Ankara is seriously considering joining the Chinese-Russian Alliance (the Shanghai Cooperation Organization - SCO), and that, within the Turkish establishment, voices calling for Turkey to leave NATO are growing louder. That would be a serious setback for Berlin's ambitions to become a world power, which for geostrategic reasons, is dependent on its cooperation with Ankara.

(Own report) - The German government's Kurdish protégés in Northern Iraq are using German weapons to attack the Yazidi minority. This has been confirmed by new photo and video documents circulating around the internet for the past few days. These documents depict the Erbil-based Kurdistan Regional Government's (KRG) Peshmerga and its allied militias attacking Yazidis with Dingo infantry mobility vehicles (IMV), G36 assault rifles and other German weapons. The Peshmerga is seeking to round off the KRG territory and annex the region surrounding Shingal ("Sinjar" in Arabic) before the planned secession from Iraq of the regions under Erbil's control. Shingal had been the focus of international attention in the summer of 2014, when the IS/Daesh killed thousands of Yazidis and abducted, enslaved and raped thousands of Yezidis. Yazidis, who have always been harassed and discriminated against by the KRG are now fearing expulsion. For years, Erbil - which Berlin is supporting politically, as well as with training and arms for its Peshmerga - has been systematically expelling Arab speaking inhabitants from the territories under its control. Already in 2015, US observers were accusing the KRG of "ethnic cleansing."

(Own report) - With today's special summit of four heads of state, Berlin is preparing the EU's transformation in response to the Brexit. The German chancellor will meet in Versailles this afternoon with France's president and the prime ministers of Italy and Spain. Selected southern EU members have been included in alleged leadership meetings with the German chancellor to prevent a southern European bloc from emerging, which could possibly, in the future, put an end to German austerity dictates. With Great Britain's exit, the neo-liberal oriented EU countries are loosing the necessary quorum for a veto in EU bodies. Berlin could also encounter problems with the Eastern European "Visegrád Group," which does not want to support the emergence of a powerful integrated core around a German hub, because it would consolidate a two or even three-class EU. Reinforcement of the EU's anti-refugee border-management and particularly its resolute militarization are emerging as the common denominators for the Union's transformation.

(Own report) - A new "White Paper" is supposed to precipitate the debate about the EU's future. The paper, presented by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker yesterday, sketches out five scenarios for the EU's possible development. These should be taken into consideration in preparations for the EU's March 25 special summit. One of the scenarios corresponds to that of the "multi-speed EU," which Chancellor Angela Merkel had recently called for. Juncker also now favors this demand. This demand means that certain groups of countries forge ahead with intensive cooperation in particular fields of politics leaving others two or three steps behind. This scenario permits the creation of multinational armed forces in Europe, in spite of persistent resistance from several EU member states. This is why Berlin favors it as a solution. Another of Juncker's scenarios suggests that the EU reduce its number of key policy fields, to include warding off refugees, foreign and military policy. With elements of this scenario, Berlin could avoid paying billions to shoulder the consequences of the Brexit - at the expense of poorer EU members.

(Own report) - The regional government in Kurdish-speaking northern Iraq, which enjoys Berlin's support, is calling for breaking up the country and establishing its own state. A referendum on secession is a "natural, God-given right of the people in Kurdistan," declared Masoud Barzani, President of the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG). The issue is national independence, KRG Foreign Minister Falah Mustafa underlined. Consultations on these topics were allegedly held on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. Barzani explicitly does not include Syrian and Turkish Kurdish-speaking regions in his plans to establish a state. Experts have long been warning against the possibility of Iraq's disintegration or being plunged into a new civil war, once IS/Daesh is defeated. The KRG can rely on Germany's legwork, in its demand for national independence. Berlin has been particularly keen to support the Kurdish-speaking regions in Iraq and has even trained and armed the KRG's military forces, the "Peshmerga," since September 2014 - within the framework of the war against IS/Daesh. Berlin has consistently ignored human rights organizations and US experts' allegations that, in the wake of this war, the Peshmerga is carrying out "ethnic cleansing," to expel unwelcome Arabs from its "Kurdistan" of tomorrow.

(Own report) - The Mexican government is pushing to rapidly modernize its free trade agreement with the EU and has declared its "close affinity" to Germany, following US President Trump's threats of massive reprisals by building a wall at the border and imposing punitive tariffs. Because of its extreme dependence on the USA, Mexico can only hold its ground by intensifying its relations with other countries, according to Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray. Mexico's enticements are greeted with sympathy by German business circles. The majority of German firms active in Mexico had already decided on new investments and is planning to carry these out, despite expected disadvantages from the projected US trade policy. Experts assume that the US administration cannot afford excessive punitive tariffs or other exorbitant escalations. At an appearance last week in Mexico, Siemens CEO Joe Kaeser ostentatiously announced investments worth US $200 million and signed an agreement of intent with Mexico's Minster of Economics for infrastructure and industrial projects with a possible volume of up to US $36 billion.

(Own report) - At the Munich Security Conference last weekend, the German government assumed the role of an ally "on a par" with the United States. The chancellor and several ministers of Germany formulated conditions for continued cooperation with the US government, while holding out the prospect of a "stronger Europe," which, according to Germany's Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel, should be capable of independently "coping successfully" with the "reality of crises and wars outside the bounds of the European Union." Appropriate rearmament measures are being prepared. The chancellor conceives of a military budget increase of around eight percent annually, while the discussion on German-European nuclear arms is continuing. Publicists are hinting at the possibility of Berlin sharing influence over the Force de Frappe through co-financing France's nuclear arms arsenal. Berlin is still relying on the alliance with Washington, at least for the time being, because rearmament and access to nuclear arms take time.