Diplomacy & Crisis News

(Own report) - The participation of elite units of the German Bundeswehr in NATO's current "Cold Response" exercise in Norway, is a demonstration of Germany's growing interest in the Arctic. While the Bundeswehr is training in "winter warfare" skills, the German government, by its own admission, is seeking to make the polar region a "central focus of German policy." Because of global warming, the thawing ice facilitates the "mining of raw materials" as well as the "ships passage through the Arctic," thus opening up new "opportunities for the German and European economies." In the meantime, Russia has officially declared that - together with China - it seeks to turn the Northeast Passage, connecting the European North Atlantic via the Russian Arctic coastline to the Pacific Ocean, into a "transport corridor with global importance." US media are already speaking of a new phase of "competition" for "spheres of interests" and calling the Arctic a future "flash point" between Moscow and Washington.

(Own report) - A NATO war game, currently taking place in Norway, with the participation of elite units of the German Bundeswehr, includes training the deployment of nuclear arms against Russia. The exercise named "Cold Response" involves the use of B-52 bombers, particularly designed to drop nuclear bombs. According to Adm. Cecil D. Haney, commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, this is to provide "an extra nuclear deterrent" against Russia. Parallel to "Cold Response," US Navy nuclear submarines are training the tracking of enemy submarines in the Arctic Ocean, to counter an alleged Russian "militarization of the Arctic." The Bundeswehr, in turn, uses "Cold Response" to train its units, specialized in military operations behind enemy lines. These units include the German Special Forces Commandos (KSK), who had been involved in illegal killings in Afghanistan. The KSK, according to the Bundeswehr, accomplishes its training task in Norway "preferably with no audience and in the dark."

(Own report) - Berlin is mobilizing universities and intelligence services to evaluate Russian influence in Germany and Europe, while expanding its counter-propaganda. Whereas, the German government is creating its own German Institute for the Study of Russia and Eastern Europe, to serve as the "point of contact" for its future policy, the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) is calling for future research efforts on Russia to include the "disclosure of Russian networks, the flow of Russian finances and its economic relations within the EU." Universities and other academic institutions, which officially are non-political bodies, should be included in these efforts. While the DGAP is moving forward and striving to promote the analysis of Russian influence in other European countries, the German government has tasked the Federal Intelligence Service (BND) with "investigating" whether Moscow is, in any way, interfering in German political debates. Counter-measures are being considered, it was reported. For example, the German-language edition of Brussels' "Disinformation Review," which makes an analysis of the media for "pro-Kremlin disinformation," will soon be published.

(Own report) - German foreign policy experts have noticed the EU's change of tune regarding its policy towards Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. According to a representative of a German party-affiliated foundation in Brussels, EU diplomats' "patience with Kiev is noticeably coming to end" in view of Ukraine's desolate development and the oligarchs' persistent intrigues. In reference to internal debates, the foundation's representative has also confirmed that voices are growing "louder" with wishes to "renew a constructive approach" toward Moscow, "not only at the economic" but also at the political level. The same applies to the recent Normandy Format ministerial meeting on the Ukrainian crisis. The German business community is also increasing its pressure to end the sanctions, because it is missing out on too many lucrative deals with Russia. A recent survey among German entrepreneurs has revealed that only twelve percent of the respondents are in favor of maintaining sanctions. In the energy sector, which, thanks to Angela Merkels engagement, has been excluded from sanctions, the German Linde AG was able to land a three-digit million Euro deal in January. At the beginning of this year, Linde CEO Wolfgang Büchele was named Chair of the German Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations (OA).

(Own report) - In an interview with Germany's ARD public television, the Syrian President Bashar al Assad acknowledged Germany's role in hosting Syrian refugees and does not rule out Germany's playing an influential role in Syria's future. He "hopes" that other countries, "especially European countries" - and Germany as the strongest EU power - would "play a role" in ending the Syrian war. However, to accomplish this, they must be "independent" of the USA, Assad declared. The ARD broadcast the exclusive interview at a time when Berlin is seeking a leading role in the international Syria negotiations and preparing to enhance its influence within the framework of the eventual reconstruction of this Middle Eastern country. Meanwhile, a US think tank is strongly criticizing the West's war on the "Islamic State" (IS/Daesh). According to the military-affiliated Institute for the Study of War (ISW), it is a mistake to focus the fight on Daesh and ignore other jihadi militias, such as Jabhat al Nusra. This would only facilitate the al Qaeda subsidiary Jabhat al Nusra taking power, particularly in Northern Syria, where the jihadists have firmly established themselves in the population. Berlin would also be confronted with significantly reinforced jihadist organizations, such as Al Nusra, in the framework of the eventual reconstruction efforts.

(Own report) - Berlin is energetically insisting on the appointment of a government of national unity in Libya in preparation for expanding two Bundeswehr missions. The future government, according to internal documents, should extend an "invitation" to the EU, to expand its Mediterranean anti-refugee defense all the way onto Libyan territory. It should set up armed forces that will be trained also by the Bundeswehr to go to war against the "Islamic State" (IS/Daesh). The USA, Great Britain, and France recently began operations ranging from air strikes to Special Forces operations, expanding the war against Daesh to Libya. However, without the ground troops, that the future Libyan government is supposed to organize, there can be no durable victory, according to military experts. While US media is speculating on the establishment of a pro-western regime in Tripoli, with the enthronement of a king, Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier is strongly insisting on the UN-constituted government of national unity being installed in office. Experts are already predicting its failure.

(Own report) - Assessing the outcome of last week's "Brexit" Summit quite positively, Berlin continues to urge London to remain in the EU. In the shadow of British demands to restrict social benefits for foreigners from other EU member countries, the German government has reached its objective of significantly cutting payments of child support benefits to immigrant workers from Eastern und Southeastern Europe - with an estimated three digit millions in savings to the German budget. The other concessions to London are primarily symbolic and, therefore, without consequences. It is also not sure that they fulfill the stipulations of EU jurisprudence. According to reports, a "summit choreography" was stage-managed, to be able to sell the meager results of the meeting to the British public as the negotiating success of their prime minister: All-night debates and hectic appearances of a seemingly stressed David Cameron suggesting tough power struggles over decisions that, in fact, had long since been made. Berlin is interested in keeping Britain in the EU, primarily for military and economic reasons.

(Own report) - In the Syrian war, Berlin und Brussels are supporting Turkey's call for a "safe zone" on Syrian territory. "Zones should be defined," where "the civilian population" could be "safe," urged Chancellor Merkel on behalf of the EU. However, this demand is aimed at preventing Syrian government forces from retaking key positions in northern Syria under Salafist militias' control. Ankara has been calling for this since some time and is now intensifying its efforts, openly threatening the intervention of its ground troops in Syria - a step that could lead to war between the NATO-member, Turkey and Russia. Dramatic consequences are also looming, if Saudi Arabia - Berlin's second close ally in the Middle East - carries out its threat and supplies the insurgent militias with surface-to-air missiles. Faced with this possible aggravation of the situation, concerned voices are being raised in sectors of the western establishment. For example, a US journal with a wide circulation warned that one should not fight Russia in the Middle East at any cost. Regime change policy, which Moscow is trying to prevent in Syria, has already destroyed Afghanistan and Iraq. This should not be repeated a third time.

(Own report) - A serious government crisis is shaking up a pro-western Ukraine. Yesterday, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk barely survived a no-confidence vote, after President Petro Poroshenko urged him to resign. Hundreds had assembled in front of the parliament building to protest against his policies, which are impoverishing large sectors of the population. Lately, people have been particularly upset over the hike in gas prices - making, for many, heating throughout the icy Ukrainian winter an expensive luxury. Berlin and Washington are worried that the country will no longer be controllable, due to the disastrous economic situation and the dramatic loss of popularity of the President and government. Western powers have therefore begun to call on Kiev to get serious about fighting corruption. Spectacular resignations of several ministers and the deputy general prosecutor have provided greater urgency to this demand and accentuated the government crisis over the past few months and the last few days, with no solution in sight. The formation of a "government of technocrats" under a longtime western diplomat is in discussion, in other words, Kiev would be placed directly under western control.

(Own report) - Germany's close allies have torpedoed the agreement to halt combat in Syria, reached at the end of last week in Munich. Turkey has begun attacks on Syrian territory, with the objective of forcing Kurdish troops to withdraw from the airbase near Aleppo, which would be of benefit to the al Qaeda offshoot, Al Nusra, which had previously held the base. Saudi Arabia has also announced intentions of sending ground troops into Syria. This threatens an escalation in the war with Saudi Arabia and the NATO member Turkey fighting on the one side, and Syria's armed forces and Russia on the other. The consequences would be unpredictable. While not only having massively built up Turkey and Saudi Arabia's arsenals, and allowing AWACS airborne radar systems to be used in the Syrian war, Berlin is focusing on the period after combat has ended. Refugees are supposed to serve as channels for enhancing German influence in Syria. The German government is also hoping to enhance its influence in Iraq through a Marshall Plan-like reconstruction effort. German military personnel are beginning to consider Russia's intervention in Syria as having prevented IS/Daesh from taking power in Damascus and carrying out offensives against other countries - including Israel.