Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

Ein Kniefall vor Donald Trump? Groß war die Kritik am neuen Handelsdeal der EU mit dem US-Präsidenten. Die Abmachung ist nicht nur fürs Klima ein Desaster, mahnt Claudia Kemfert – sie droht auch einen alten Fehler der Vergangenheit zu wiederholen., Die jüngste Beilegung des Zollstreits zwischen den USA und der EU umfasst weitaus mehr als Zölle. So hat sich die EU offenbar verpflichtet, bis zum Ende von Trumps Amtszeit für 750 Milliarden Dollar amerikanische Energie zu kaufen. Das mag zunächst nach einem Handelserfolg klingen, nach ...

This paper analyses the structural vulnerabilities of Latin American economies amid recent United States (US)-China tariff escalations and identifies strategic opportunities emerging from these shifts. Based on descriptive bilateral trade data from 2023 for the largest Latin American economies – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico – the study assesses exposure to US tariffs at the industry level. It further highlights sectors with the potential to benefit from diverted trade flows in the context of trade polarisation between China and the US. The degree of exposure varies across countries, depending on export structure and trade partners. While the tariff conflict may enable some countries to expand exports to China or the US, most Latin American economies – except Mexico – export their largest share of their manufactured goods within the region. Strengthening regional trade integration can therefore enhance resilience to external shocks and support technological upgrading.

Melike Döver and Martin Middelanis are researchers at Freie Universität Berlin in Germany.

This paper analyses the structural vulnerabilities of Latin American economies amid recent United States (US)-China tariff escalations and identifies strategic opportunities emerging from these shifts. Based on descriptive bilateral trade data from 2023 for the largest Latin American economies – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico – the study assesses exposure to US tariffs at the industry level. It further highlights sectors with the potential to benefit from diverted trade flows in the context of trade polarisation between China and the US. The degree of exposure varies across countries, depending on export structure and trade partners. While the tariff conflict may enable some countries to expand exports to China or the US, most Latin American economies – except Mexico – export their largest share of their manufactured goods within the region. Strengthening regional trade integration can therefore enhance resilience to external shocks and support technological upgrading.

Melike Döver and Martin Middelanis are researchers at Freie Universität Berlin in Germany.

This paper analyses the structural vulnerabilities of Latin American economies amid recent United States (US)-China tariff escalations and identifies strategic opportunities emerging from these shifts. Based on descriptive bilateral trade data from 2023 for the largest Latin American economies – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico – the study assesses exposure to US tariffs at the industry level. It further highlights sectors with the potential to benefit from diverted trade flows in the context of trade polarisation between China and the US. The degree of exposure varies across countries, depending on export structure and trade partners. While the tariff conflict may enable some countries to expand exports to China or the US, most Latin American economies – except Mexico – export their largest share of their manufactured goods within the region. Strengthening regional trade integration can therefore enhance resilience to external shocks and support technological upgrading.

Melike Döver and Martin Middelanis are researchers at Freie Universität Berlin in Germany.

United States (US) trade policy has undergone a series of significant changes introducing far-reaching uncertainty for trading partners in both the short and long term. Among the most vulnerable to these changes are low- and middle-income countries. Anticipating the potential impact of proposed or enacted US trade measures ex-ante is difficult. Therefore, this discussion paper examines the structural vulnerabilities of a selection of African countries – Lesotho, Madagascar, Côte d’Ivoire, South Africa, and Tunisia – to recent shifts. Using descriptive trade data, the paper maps direct and indirect channels of exposure and highlights the structural constraints that amplify vulnerability. While Africa is not among the most directly exposed regions, several countries face significant risks due to concentrated export structures, reliance on a few trade partners, and limited capacity to redirect trade in the short term. This highlights the strategic importance for African countries to strengthen regional integration, industrial upgrading, and reduce external dependencies.

Sascha Berndt and Andreas Edele are trade policy experts at Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH.

United States (US) trade policy has undergone a series of significant changes introducing far-reaching uncertainty for trading partners in both the short and long term. Among the most vulnerable to these changes are low- and middle-income countries. Anticipating the potential impact of proposed or enacted US trade measures ex-ante is difficult. Therefore, this discussion paper examines the structural vulnerabilities of a selection of African countries – Lesotho, Madagascar, Côte d’Ivoire, South Africa, and Tunisia – to recent shifts. Using descriptive trade data, the paper maps direct and indirect channels of exposure and highlights the structural constraints that amplify vulnerability. While Africa is not among the most directly exposed regions, several countries face significant risks due to concentrated export structures, reliance on a few trade partners, and limited capacity to redirect trade in the short term. This highlights the strategic importance for African countries to strengthen regional integration, industrial upgrading, and reduce external dependencies.

Sascha Berndt and Andreas Edele are trade policy experts at Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH.

United States (US) trade policy has undergone a series of significant changes introducing far-reaching uncertainty for trading partners in both the short and long term. Among the most vulnerable to these changes are low- and middle-income countries. Anticipating the potential impact of proposed or enacted US trade measures ex-ante is difficult. Therefore, this discussion paper examines the structural vulnerabilities of a selection of African countries – Lesotho, Madagascar, Côte d’Ivoire, South Africa, and Tunisia – to recent shifts. Using descriptive trade data, the paper maps direct and indirect channels of exposure and highlights the structural constraints that amplify vulnerability. While Africa is not among the most directly exposed regions, several countries face significant risks due to concentrated export structures, reliance on a few trade partners, and limited capacity to redirect trade in the short term. This highlights the strategic importance for African countries to strengthen regional integration, industrial upgrading, and reduce external dependencies.

Sascha Berndt and Andreas Edele are trade policy experts at Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH.

In this merged edition of MORE, Bledar Feta and Çelik Rruplli examine the trajectory of Albania’s judicial reform, launched in 2016 as part of the country’s EU accession efforts and broader attempts to strengthen democracy, the rule of law, and public trust in institutions. A central component of the reform is the establishment of SPAK, the Special Anti-Corruption Structure, an independent judicial body tasked with investigating and prosecuting high-level corruption and organized crime.

Operational since late 2019, SPAK has filed charges against senior officials from both the current and former administrations. Public trust in the institution has grown significantly, with recent data from a Euronews Albania Barometer survey indicating that 52.1% of citizens now express confidence in SPAK, making it the most trusted institution in the country for the first time. Furthermore, 70.7% of respondents evaluated its performance positively, while both figures have risen by 10% since January 2025. High-profile cases including the arrest of Tirana mayor Erion Veliaj have further solidified SPAK’s credibility in the public eye. While this progress has contributed to Albania advancing its EU accession process, particularly in the areas of fundamental rights and the rule of law, major challenges remain. These include a shortage of magistrates, case backlogs, and perceptions of corruption that remain persistently high, despite signs of increased public cooperation with judicial institutions.

This paper is part of the Media Observatory Reports (MORE) and covers the period from October 2023 to February 2025. It highlights how media coverage of justice reform in Albania—particularly regarding SPAK—has been extensive but often polarized. While the media plays a vital role in shaping public understanding, it also tends to amplify political narratives, undermining objective scrutiny and contributing to confusion about the aims and progress of the reform. The Media Observatory Reports are part of the broader “ALGREE – Albania-Greece: Understanding. Connecting. Partnering” project implemented by the South-East Europe Programme of the Hellenic Foundation for Foreign & European Policy (ELIAMEP) with support from the Open Society Foundations Western Balkans (OSFWB) and the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom Greece and Cyprus (FNF). They are based on the systematic monitoring and analysis of leading Greek and Albanian media, with a focus on how each country reports on the other as well as on issues of common interest.

You can read the paper in Greek, Albanian and English.

In ihrer 2025 neu erstellten Bedrohungseinschätzung (Serious and Organized Crime Threat Assessment, SOCTA) konstatiert die europäische Polizeibehörde Europol einen deutlichen Wandel der Bedrohungslage durch organisierte Kriminalität. Gegen­über dem Vorgänger­bericht von 2021 stellt Europol sogar eine veränderte DNA der organi­sierten Kriminalität fest. Diese hat sich besonders im Zuge der Covid-19-Pande­mie ver­stärkt auf digitale Kanäle verlagert, wo kriminelle Dienstleistungen einfach und mit niedrigen Zugangsschranken angeboten werden. Transnational organisierte krimi­nelle Lieferketten verbinden Deutschland und Europa inzwischen fest mit ande­ren Welt­regionen. Das zeigt sich an der aktuellen Kokainschwemme und der wach­senden Konkurrenz auf europäischen Märkten. Auch benutzen gerade autoritär regierte Staaten organisierte Kriminalität zunehmend als geopolitisches Vehikel, etwa um Sabotageakte zu verüben, Spionage zu verschleiern oder Sanktionen zu um­gehen. Davon sind die Mit­gliedstaaten der Europäischen Union (EU) und ihre direkte Nach­barschaft beson­ders betroffen. Neben engerer internationaler Zusammenarbeit bedarf es besse­rer Abstimmung von Instrumenten des Innen- und Außenhandelns.

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IPI’s Women, Peace and Security program, in partnership with the Elsie Initiative for Women in Peace Operations (led by Global Affairs Canada), the United Nations Office of the Special Coordinator on Improving the UN Response to Sexual Exploitation and Abuse and the Gender and Security Sector Lab, cohosted a virtual policy forum on July 30th on “Sexual Exploitation, Abuse, and Harassment (SEAH) in UN Peace Operations.”

As part of its ongoing partnership with the Elsie Initiative, IPI is launching two issue briefs that contribute to improving the United Nations’ approach to preventing sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA) and sexual harassment (SH) in UN peace operations.

One of the issue briefs, “Connecting Sexual Exploitation and Abuse and Sexual Harassment in UN Peace Operations,” examines the divide between SEA and SH, arguing for a shift toward the more holistic concept of sexual exploitation, abuse, and harassment (SEAH). This step could allow the UN to better prevent both SEA and SH by addressing the gendered power imbalances that lie at their root. The second issue brief, “Training on Sexual Exploitation and Abuse for Uniformed Peacekeepers: Effectiveness and Limitations,” published in collaboration with the Gender and Security Sector Lab, explores the effectiveness of UN-mandated training on SEA. The paper highlights key findings from an analysis of cross-national survey data representing more than 4,000 military and police personnel, considers the effectiveness and limitations of current SEA trainings, and provides recommendations for enhancing the prevention of SEA.

Panelists discussed recommendations for improving the UN’s approach to combating and preventing SEAH, making peacekeeping safer for peacekeepers and the populations they serve.

Welcoming and Opening Remarks:
Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein, President and Chief Executive Officer, International Peace Institute
Jacqueline O’Neill, former Women, Peace and Security Ambassador for Canada, Director, Global Affairs Canada
Phoebe Donnelly, Senior Fellow and Head of Women, Peace and Security, International Peace Institute

Speakers:
Christian Saunders, Under-Secretary-General and Special Coordinator on Improving the UN Response to Sexual Exploitation and Abuse
DeAnne Roark, Postdoctoral Scholar, Gender and Security Sector Lab
Olubuckola Awoyemi, Chief Conduct and Discipline Officer, MINURSO
Evyn Papworth, Policy Analyst, Women, Peace and Security, International Peace Institute
Aiko Holvikivi, Assistant Professor in Gender, Peace and Security, The London School of Economics and Political Science

Moderator:
Phoebe Donnelly, Senior Fellow and Head of Women, Peace and Security, International Peace Institute

The post Sexual Exploitation, Abuse, and Harassment (SEAH) in UN Peace Operations appeared first on International Peace Institute.

Developments under Trump 2.0.

Entwicklungen in der Klima- und Energiepolitik der USA unter Trump 2.0.

Logiken und Elemente internationaler Ordnung verstehen, europäische Sicherheit gestalten

Hinweis: Gegenüber der ursprünglichen Version des Statements musste folgender Satz korrigiert werden (frühere Version in Klammern): "Zwar sind im aktuellen Haushaltsentwurf 37 (statt zuvor: 36) Milliarden Euro für dieses Jahr und über 55 Milliarden Euro für 2026 (statt zuvor: 2025) vorgesehen, doch die Erfahrung zeigt, dass das sehr ambitioniert ist." Wir bitten, den Fehler zu entschuldigen.

Das Statistische Bundesamt hat heute bekannt gegeben, dass das Bruttoinlandsprodukt in Deutschland im zweiten Quartal 2025 um 0,1 Prozent gegenüber dem ersten Quartal gesunken ist. Dazu eine Einschätzung von Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Konjunkturchefin des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin):

Die deutsche Wirtschaft hat nach starkem Jahresauftakt leicht an Tempo verloren, der Aufschwung ist damit aber nicht abgeblasen. Jetzt ist Geduld gefragt. Produktion und Geschäftsklima im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe entwickeln sich positiv. Auch die Einigung im Zollstreit zwischen der EU und den USA sorgt für mehr Planungssicherheit, wenngleich – nach allem, was man bisher weiß – keine Entlastung bei den Zöllen zu erwarten ist. Im Gegenteil, die Belastungen werden wohl leicht steigen. Einen entscheidenden Beitrag zu einem stärkeren Aufschwung werden die geplanten Investitionen aus dem Sondervermögen für Infrastruktur und Klimaschutz leisten. Zwar sind im aktuellen Haushaltsentwurf 37 Milliarden Euro für dieses Jahr und über 55 Milliarden Euro für 2026 vorgesehen, doch die Erfahrung zeigt, dass das sehr ambitioniert ist. Es wäre schon eine Erfolgsgeschichte, wenn die Hälfte der geplanten Mittel abfließen würde. Die Umsetzung der Projekte braucht Zeit. Planung, Vergabe und Umsetzungsphase verzögern die Wirkung, sodass spürbare Impulse erst ab 2026 zu erwarten sind.

Das Konjunkturbarometer des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin) sinkt im Juli leicht und liegt nun bei 92,3 Punkten – das ist knapp ein Punkt weniger als im Juni. Damals erreichte der Barometerwert ein Zwei-Jahres-Hoch. Nun entfernt er sich wieder etwas von der neutralen 100 ...

Geopolitische Spannungen und Handelskonflikte veranlassen Regierungen, ihre eigenen Währungen zu fördern – DIW-Studie zeigt am Beispiel des Handels zwischen China und Frankreich, wie Regierungen dabei vorgehen und Unternehmen reagieren – China konnte seine Währung zwar international stärker ...

In the 50th year of its existence, the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) is more than ever looking for a new role. The war in Ukraine and other conflicts in the OSCE area show how important the work of civil society organi­sations is in times of war and crisis – especially in fields where the state’s ability to act is limited. In an increasingly fragile international order, the OSCE should refocus on its strengths in regional conflict management and take greater account of the expertise of civil society. Moreover, representatives of civil society should get involved in the structures of the OSCE more systematically than has been the case to date, not only formally but also in practice. The Helsinki Conference on 31 July 2025, which commemorates the adoption of the CSCE Final Act, offers a good starting point.