Diplomacy & Crisis News

(Own report) - With the Alternative for Germany (AfD), an extreme right wing party will enter the German Bundestag for the first time since the 1950s. With 13 percent of the vote, the AfD has successfully mobilized an extreme right-wing potential that, according to a sociological study, has always existed within the German population. All parties in the Bundestag openly repudiate the AfD. However, this only obscures the fact that the AfD's program, particularly on the important issues of foreign and military policy, show remarkable parallels to the political objectives of almost all other parties in the Bundestag. Like the CDU/CSU, FDP, SPD and the Greens, the AfD sees Germany as a global "policy-making power," whose armed forces should be massively upgraded and made more operational. Whereas, the mainstream parties in the Bundestag are relying on the EU as the instrument for German global policy, the AfD favors a national course for Germany exercising global power. This course would probably take effect should the EU disintegrate due to the growing internal dissentions or if more and more countries opt to exit.

M. Faure Gnassingbé sera-t-il candidat à sa propre succession lors de l'élection présidentielle togolaise de 2015 ? Son départ constitue l'un des enjeux du dialogue entamé mi-mai par tous les partis politiques. / France, Togo, Armée, Élections, Relations Nord-Sud, Politique, Violence, Mafia, Afrique de (...) / France, Togo, Armée, Élections, Relations Nord-Sud, Politique, Violence, Mafia, Afrique de l'Ouest, Diplomatie, Corruption, Relations bilatérales - 2014/06

L'escalade n'a pas provoqué l'effondrement de la République démocratique du Vietnam, bien que les Etats–Unis, selon leurs propres sources, aient largué près de 100 000 tonnes de bombes. Comment un petit pays agricole a-t-il pu, grâce à sa détermination et à son ingéniosité, résister à la nation (...) / États-Unis (affaires extérieures), Agriculture, Culture, Éducation, Faim, Femmes, Guerre du Vietnam 1959-1975, Impérialisme, Nationalisme, Santé, Société, Autodétermination des peuples, Nord-Vietnam 1945-1976, Mouvement de libération - 1968/03

In his first address to the United Nations, President Donald Trump gave the international community a message consistent with much of his prior rhetoric on international affairs. The President declared that the United Nations, “… was based on the vision that diverse nations could cooperate to protect their sovereignty, preserve their security, and promote their prosperity”, and these three pillars resonated strongly through his remarks. President Trump attempted to walk the tightrope between promoting the sovereignty of all nations while denouncing the behavior of “rogue nations” both domestically and in their international engagements. In a way that seems standard to the President’s domestic observers (but was likely unfamiliar to a body like the United Nations), Mr. Trump simultaneously highlighted the importance of the sovereign rights of each nation while calling for unified global action against nations who behave in ways that cause turmoil and uncertainty for the global community.

This call to collective action is grounded in the belief that well intentioned nations in the world would find it in their individual interest to combat the advances of bad actors. President Trump’s continued promise to put America first was followed by the assumption that the leaders of other nations will, and should, follow the same approach on behalf of their citizens. To further this argument, the President highlighted remarks made by President Truman, who argued that the United Nations draws its capacity from the strength of individual members who are willing to pool their strength collectively for the betterment of all. While this approach seems common sense, it is only useful to the extent that other nations share the President’s subjective approach to right action and views on what constitutes good governance.

President Trump was unwavering in his assessment that the primary threat to global security, “… is a small group of rogue regimes that violate every principle on which the United Nations is based.” The President called for international action against three bad actors in particular- North Korea, Iran, and Venezuela, noting that the governments in each of those three nations fostered horrible outcomes both for their own people and for the international community.

In a similar way, President Trump slammed Iran for, “speak(ing) openly of mass murder, vowing death to America, (and) destruction of Israel.” He also criticized the Iranian regime as a, “corrupt dictatorship behind the false guise of democracy” that sponsored terror groups that destabilize the Middle East in particular and the entire world more generally. After arguing the case that Iran is a bad actor and destabilizing force in the world, Mr. Trump castigated the Iran nuclear deal as, “an embarrassment to the United States”, and insisted that we would be hearing about the deal’s fate under his administration in short order.

While the case for collective action appears strong in the instance of North Korea and Iran, the call for the restoration of democracy in Venezuela seems to be at odds with the President’s message of sovereignty.  Make no doubt- socialism is a failed ideology, and President Trump rightly targeted the economic system as one that has spread poverty and oppression everywhere that it has been implemented. Mr. Trump also accurately suggested that it is in large part a consequence of this attempt to collectivize Venezuela’s economy that the nation’s democracy has collapsed into an increasingly dictatorial state of affairs.

Those arguments are separate, however, from the notion that Venezuela is a threat to the international order as a consequence of its economic mismanagement. To the extent that Venezuela made a genuine democratic choice to go down the path of socialism by electing Hugo Chavez to the nation’s top office in 1999, it seems suspect to violate that nation’s sovereignty on the grounds that such a decision has proven to have devastating consequences for the Venezuelan people.  While President Trump held back from again mentioning a military option in the Latin American nation, he did mark a return to full democracy as a key objective for the United Nations to pursue. Depending on the form that this objective takes, it could prove to be one of the more troubling policies put forth by the Trump administration.

In addition to his comments on the immediate state of international affairs, President Trump commented on the state of the United Nations as an institution. Against the backdrop of praise for the body’s potential to do good in the world, Mr. Trump highlighted that, “… the United Nations must reform if it is to be an effective partner in confronting threats to sovereignty, security, and prosperity”, and that, “too often the focus of (the United Nations) has not been on results, but on bureaucracy and process.” On top of these reforms, the President noted that, “The United States is one out of 193 countries in the United Nations, and yet we pay 22% of the entire budget”, and that as a consequence of the United Nations’ failures on some of President Trump’s ambitions, the United States is getting out far less than it puts into the international body.

It is also worth noting that despite the strong rhetoric directed at some trouble makers, Trump refused to offer the same sort of harsh commentary towards China and Russia for their controversial foreign policies. The President only mentioned those two nations on a single occasion, when he expressed disappointment at Russian territorial expansion into Ukraine and China’s expansionism in the South China Sea. Along this same line of reasoning, Mr. Trump was quick to point to humanitarian failings by America’s rivals while refusing to extend that argument to Saudi Arabia and other American allies that have authoritarian governments with abysmal human rights records. This cognitive dissidence is troubling, especially in light of the President’s approach to collective action by sovereign mechanisms.

Taken as a whole, the value of President Trump’s speech at the United Nations is dependent on the extent to which other nations find themselves in agreement with the President’s preferred outcomes to today’s global security challenges. Mr. Trump called for collective action against rogue regimes, yet he highlighted the importance of each individual nation’s autonomy and sovereignty in a way that his recent predecessors would not have dared to endorse. This unique balance is, then, reliant on President Trump’s ability to bring other world leaders to his perspective- it will find success or failure on his ability to make a truly good deal for the American people on the world stage. “Our respect for sovereignty is also a call to action”, President Trump said towards the end of his remarks. That claim is uniquely capable of summarizing Mr. Trumps comments to the General Assembly, and the extent to which that assumption holds will play a substantial role in the future of the Trump Foreign policy.

—

Peter Scaturro- Assistant Director of Studies at the Foreign Policy Association

The post Our Respect for Sovereignty is also a Call to Action appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Cette recension a été publiée dans le numéro d’automne de Politique étrangère (n°3/2017). Norbert Gaillard propose une analyse de l’ouvrage de Klaus Schwab, La quatrième révolution industrielle (Dunod, 2017, 208 p.).

Klaus Schwab, fondateur et président du Forum économique mondial, analyse ici en profondeur la quatrième révolution industrielle, qui commence à transformer nos sociétés. La thèse de l’auteur est que les multiples innovations apparues depuis le début du siècle sont constitutives d’une nouvelle révolution industrielle. Il avance trois arguments pour étayer son point de vue : la rapidité du phénomène, son ampleur et son impact.

La matrice de cette quatrième révolution industrielle est la puissance de l’intelligence augmentée qui permet un accroissement sans précédent des capacités de production. Les conséquences sont évidentes : le travailleur insuffisamment qualifié est le perdant de cette mutation. À l’inverse, le détenteur de capital (financier, humain ou techno­logique) ressort gagnant. Klaus Schwab entrevoit deux obstacles à l’accomplissement de cette nouvelle révolution : l’inadaptation du système politique, économique et social, et l’absence de récit collectif expliquant les opportunités du monde en gestation.

L’étude de l’impact de ces changements technologiques occupe l’essentiel du livre. Cinq grands domaines sont passés en revue : l’économie et le monde de l’entreprise, d’une part ; l’État, la société et l’individu, d’autre part.

Les bouleversements économiques à attendre sont de taille : disparition de certains emplois (professionnels du télémarketing, conseillers fiscaux, secrétaires), plus grande autonomie des travailleurs et généralisation de la notion de « mission ». Une précarisation accrue est à craindre. Les entreprises auront les moyens d’augmenter leur production et leur productivité. Les stratégies de plateforme assureront une valorisation des biens et des services proposés. En contrepartie, il faudra investir massivement dans la sécurisation des données afin de lutter contre les cyberattaques.

Les États, quant à eux, gagneront en efficacité grâce à une nouvelle gouvernance numérique mais les défis sont nombreux. Le principal est sans doute la montée en puissance de micro-pouvoirs. Le meilleur (démocratisation et pluralisme) pourrait côtoyer le pire (cyberguerre et propagande antidémocratique). Ces chocs technologiques sont susceptibles de cristalliser des tensions politico-religieuses et d’aggraver les inégalités sociales. Les classes moyennes risquent d’ailleurs de se sentir déclassées dans une société toujours plus connectée, productive et transparente. L’individu améliorera son accès à l’information et au savoir mais perdra une partie de son empathie et de sa capacité à se concentrer. Cependant, c’est la recherche en matière génétique qui pose les questions éthiques et philosophiques les plus épineuses : les concepts d’identité et d’individu auront-ils encore un sens dans une génération ?

Les annexes sont tout aussi passionnantes. Sélectionnant 23 mutations majeures (telles que les technologies implantables, l’internet des objets, la maison connectée, la voiture autonome, l’intelligence artificielle dans le milieu professionnel, l’impression 3D, les neuro­technologies), Schwab présente systématiquement les enjeux ainsi que les effets positifs et négatifs attendus.

Cet ouvrage vaut le détour : clair, ­instructif, il n’occulte pas les diffi­cultés que pose la quatrième ­révolution industrielle.

Norbert Gaillard

S’abonner à Politique étrangère

 

The official phase of “Zapad-2017”, the biggest Russian-Belarusian military exercise this year, started on September 14, 2017. Yet, this event has been analysed by security pundits for months. There were many speculations about how this exercise will change the regional dynamics and security situation. The aim of this article is to put “Zapad-2017” into a larger perspective. How do the Russian armed forces train and what is the purpose of those drills? What has changed since the previous “Zapad” exercise which took place in 2013? What is to watch during “Zapad-2017”?

Here are ten things every Foreign Policy Blogs reader should know:

1) Russians train as they fight. This is a crucial element of the Russian exercising posture. In practical terms, this means that the Russian drills are based on a real threat assessment. The scenarios are realistic. They cover the opponents that exist and the military capabilities which match the reality.

2) Since 2013 Russia has been directly engaged in two major conventional military conflicts in the vicinity of NATO. Both in the cases of Ukraine and Syria, Russian forces continue to test their military capabilities, chain of command, procedures and level of interoperability on the battlefield. Those military operations have helped the Russian armed forces gain solid battlefield experience in a conventional conflict. “Zapad-2017” is yet another chance to verify the lessons learnt from both wars and eliminate existing gaps.

3) The Russian operational engagement gives us some initial sense of the elements which might be exercised. Based on the observation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict one can expect the following components: use of drones or UAVs to exercise constant real-time surveillance, swift targeting by concentrated artillery fire with advanced munition as well as offensive electronic warfare capabilities.

4) “Zapad-2017” is of particular importance for the Russian Western and Southern Military Districts. They have become a top priority in the Russian military modernisation program since at least 2012. In practical terms this means that the units in both districts have received the most modern and technologically-advanced equipment, which will be put to the test in “Zapad-2017”.

5) Another key element of the modernisation of both military districts is the creation of the highly sophisticated Anti-Access/Area Denial systems (A2/AD). They encompass the necessary air power, maritime capabilities (including offensive mining), offensive and defensive missile systems (including Iskander, Bastion, Kalibr and S-400), offensive electronic warfare and cyber capabilities. The militarisation of the Kaliningrad Oblast and Crimea led to the creation of the so-called A2/AD bubbles right on NATO borders. Their main goal is to limit NATO’s freedom of manoeuvring. In “Zapad-2017” one shall expect that those systems will not only be exercised, but in fact (and what is even more important) their level of integration will be verified.

6) The nuclear component is something of particular importance to watch during “Zapad-2017”. Russia often merges the conventional and nuclear dimensions into one scenario. In fact, such an approach allows Russia to test its escalation dominance in a potential conflict. This is exactly what NATO does not do as such a policy fuels unpredictability and enhances a lack of confidence. In a broader context, the Russian approach also aims at intimidating European societies.

7) Since 2013 Russia has significantly changed its combined exercising posture. The “whole of nation” approach to drills was reintroduced. In reality it means that the whole public administration – on both national and regional levels – prepares for a large-scale conflict. The non-military units and agencies train simultaneously with the Russian armed forces. The “whole of nation’ approach helps to integrate the military and non-military systems and enhances their interoperability.

8) Russia also reinstated the practice of organising the so-called snap exercises. Those drills come with no prior notification and are predominantly large in scale. They often happen in NATO’s direct vicinity. They are very hard to trace and could potentially serve as a preparation to the start of a military conflict. There is no doubt that snap exercises confirm Russia’s strategic political and military unpredictability as they increase the level of uncertainty and the risk of miscalculation.

9) Russia’s exercising policy can also be characterised by a lack of transparency. Russia often does not give advanced notice of its exercises which is a standard procedure in the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). Russia repeatedly splits its large scale exercises, as in the case of “Zapad-2017”, into smaller ones. This tactics allows it to avoid the necessity of notification and invitation of foreign observers. In fact the Russian armed forces often act contrary to the spirit of the OSCE instruments and use the existing “loopholes”, especially in the Vienna Document.

10) At the same time, Russia uses exercises like “Zapad-2017” to verify the effectiveness of its propaganda machinery. In the media sphere Russia often artificially boosts the number of troops and equipment that will take part in the exercise in order to test the reaction of NATO allies, neighbouring states (especially Ukraine, Georgia, Sweden and Finland) and European societies. In fact, in the case of the “Zapad-2017” Russia wanted to create an impression that this exercise is the only game in town. In fact, it is not. Other operations – including the Russian military engagement in Ukraine and Syria, the Russian hybrid activities in Western and Central Europe or in the Western Balkans – continue.

This article was originally published by “New Eastern Europe”.

All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institution he represents.

The post Ten Things You Need to Know about Russian Military Exercises appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

(Own report) - Berlin's long-standing support for the Kurdish Autonomous Region has helped lay the groundwork for the referendum on the secession of Iraq's Kurdish-speaking regions, scheduled to be held on Monday. For decades, the Barzani clan, which controls the regional government, has maintained good relations with leading German politicians of the CDU and CSU parties. Since 2005, Berlin has systematically sponsored the autonomous region - through economic aid and establishing German institutions. Most recently, Germany was even training and upgrading the Kurdish Peshmerga into a powerful military force - officially to strengthen an ally in the war against IS. However, today the Peshmerga could use its German weapons for the secession of its region, if necessary, imposing it by armed force. In plain sight of the Bundeswehr, and under cover of the war against the IS, the Peshmerga has been carrying out so-called ethnic cleansing in towns, previously outside the Kurdish Autonomous Region to secure the desired pro-Kurdish majority in the upcoming referendum. Up to now, Berlin has voiced no objections to the date of the secession referendum.

People fly “Estelada” flags (Catalan separatist flag) during a pro-independence rally in Barcelona, Spain June 11, 2017. (REUTERS/Albert Gea)

National governments in federally unified states rarely allow for a national legal process to break up its own Federation. The legality of the upcoming referendum on Catalonia’s independence from Spain did not meet the legal requirements it needed to in order to depart from Spain, but if they declare independence, the Spanish courts may no longer have the presumed jurisdiction to stop a separation.

Catalonia was always a strong contender for independence due to its economic strength as a region, the historical divide via culture and language to the rest of Spain, and the existence of the EU that gives more of a weighed representation to regional governments in national forums. With the possible fracturing of the EU, the recent referendum might be the last best opportunity to separate from Spain for the Catalan people, or at least may give Catalonia a stronger position in a federated Spanish state.

A case in Canada in the Supreme Court of that country set to legitimize Quebec’s separation from the rest of Canada many years ago. The requirements were not met to separate Quebec from Canada constitutionally at the time. While cultural differences are recognized by most people who have spent anytime in Quebec, financially Quebec was heavily linked to the rest of Canada. With Catalans citing the amount of tax dollars going to Madrid’s central government as one of the catalysts for separation, Quebec and even the Canadian province of Alberta may take a separation of Catalonia from Spain as a sign of the times for their own provinces. The impression of a unified community in one region having to financially support the rest of Spain links pocket book issues with that of culture.

In Canada, the largest and most industrially developed province that is the home of the national capital, Ontario, has what many claim as the largest sub-sovereign debt in the world. This means Ontario as an independent province has more debt than any other regional government in the world, and more than many nation states and large US states like California and New York. With Quebec and other provinces moving ahead economically, the view is that Canada’s main economic hub is deteriorating.

With economic interdependence turning into an economic burden, places like Catalonia and Quebec may be able to remove some of the shared debt that comes with being in a federated state by shedding the very governments that have accumulated the majority of the national debt. While financial situations are not a sole cause of leaving a state, it does point to an opportunity for independence. In Ontario, recent corruption trials involving the current government also does not help show a positive trend to Quebec, Alberta or the rest of Canada.

Scotland’s fight against being removed from the EU post-Brexit or Quebec leaving Canada depends heavily on economic independence as much as cultural and political independence. With those regions being such a large part of the UK and Canada respectively, it is hard to imagine either country existing without the other. When the vision is that those regions can exist on their own without the need or ties to the capital, the recipe for independence comes as it has in Catalonia. A lesson for federal states is to remember that bad policy can lead to the end of the current incarnations of a state, and that measured policies may suit a federation better than radical policy moves that are established mostly just to keep one’s job in politics. These issues should be presented clearly in the upcoming referendum vote or any others in the future.

The post An Independent Catalonia May Promote Worldwide Independence Movements appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Auteur de l’article « Élections allemandes : le jour d’après » paru dans le numéro d’automne de Politique étrangère (3/2017), Hans Stark, secrétaire général du Comité d’études des relations franco-allemandes (Cerfa) de l’Ifri, répond à 3 questions en exclusivité pour politique-etrangere.com à quelques jours du scrutin allemand du 24 septembre.

1) La réélection d’Angela Merkel ne fait guère de doutes.
Comment expliquer la longévité de la chancelière allemande ?

La longévité politique d’Angela Merkel s’explique par de nombreux facteurs. La situation économique est jugée globalement bonne par les électeurs malgré une précarité persistante qui touche près d’un Allemand sur cinq. Merkel domine largement son propre parti dont elle assure la présidence depuis 2002 et a su écarter tous ses rivaux potentiels après son arrivée à la chancellerie. Par ailleurs, dans le passé, presque tous les chanceliers de la République fédérale ont profité d’une image favorable, ce que les Allemands appellent un « bonus de gouvernement », d’où la longévité d’Adenauer et de Kohl, voire de Schmidt et de Schröder. Aussi Merkel a-t-elle bénéficié d’un large soutien auprès des Allemands depuis 2005, à l’exception des années 2015 et 2016, pendant la crise migratoire qui a semblé lui échapper.

Enfin, après le Brexit et la victoire de Trump, elle rassure les électeurs dans un monde de plus en plus instable et s’est ouverte aux électeurs du centre-gauche par un certain nombre de décisions peu en phase avec l’idéologie politique de son propre parti, comme la sortie du nucléaire décidée en 2011, l’accueil des réfugiés en 2015 ou l’introduction du mariage pour tous en 2017. Toutefois, force est aussi de constater qu’une minorité non négligeable d’Allemands, notamment de l’Est, s’opposent vivement à Merkel et exigent son départ.

2) Angela Merkel devra constituer une coalition pour gouverner.
Quels scénarios peut-on envisager ?

D’après les derniers sondages qui rendent une coalition de centre/droite (donc CDU-CSU/FDP) peu probable faute de majorité au Parlement, deux coalitions semblent envisageables. La première réunirait la CDU-CSU, les libéraux du FDP et les Verts. Cette constellation n’est pas inconcevable, mais se heurte à deux obstacles. Elle n’a jamais existé à l’échelle nationale et elle suscite des remous au sein de la CSU, du FDP et des Verts qui s’entendent tous les trois avec Merkel, mais pas entre eux. Sur les questions économiques et sociales, tout oppose les Verts et le FDP. De même, sur les questions migratoires, qui ont fait leur retour dans le débat électoral allemand à la veille des élections, la CSU, le FDP et les Verts ne partagent pas du tout les mêmes conceptions. Une coalition « jamaïcaine » sera donc difficile à réaliser.

La deuxième coalition est celle qui est actuellement au pouvoir. Mais le SPD, s’il essuie une défaite trop lourde, y réfléchira par deux fois au moins. Car les grandes coalitions l’affaiblissent et elles profitent aux extrêmes. D’où la montée de l’AfD qui pourrait, avec un score à deux chiffres, devenir le troisième parti d’Allemagne et incarner l’opposition au Bundestag si le SPD entre de nouveau au gouvernement. Un scénario que beaucoup de sociaux-démocrates pourraient vouloir éviter, malgré l’attrait du pouvoir (et des privilèges qui l’accompagnent). Enfin, seul un passage dans l’opposition permettra au SPD de retrouver sa base électorale et de constituer, à terme, un programme commun avec Die Linke et les Verts en vue des élections de 2021. Une telle perspective pourrait amener les sociaux-démocrates à dire non à la chancelière qui sortirait alors certes victorieuse des élections de 2017 mais en grande difficulté pour former un gouvernement.

3) Quel impact sur la relation franco-allemande ces élections peuvent-elles avoir ?

Angela Merkel s’est ouverte aux propositions d’Emmanuel Macron quant aux changements que ce dernier propose pour la zone euro. C’est une bonne nouvelle pour le couple franco-allemand. Mais la réalisation de ces desseins a plus de chances de réussir si le SPD, qui a fait de la relance européenne un des points centraux de son programme politique, se maintient au pouvoir. Le FDP en revanche, même s’il ne s’agit pas d’un parti eurosceptique mais au contraire d’un parti pro-européen et pro-occidental, est traditionnellement très hostile au pilotage politique de l’économie, que ce soit à l’échelle nationale ou bien au niveau européen. Il partage ainsi l’hostilité de l’AfD contre des politiques de soutien financier aux pays du sud de l’UE ou des politiques de relance de l’économie par le biais d’investissements politiques (surtout s’ils sont financés en grande partie par l’Allemagne).

Dans une coalition avec le FDP, la politique d’austérité sera sans doute maintenue tout comme la politique de soutien aux exportations – ce qui n’est pas dans l’intérêt de ceux qui prônent une Allemagne plus « solidaire ». Enfin, plus l’AfD sera forte, plus le FDP et même la CDU-CSU se verront contraints de faire valoir les intérêts allemands au sein de l’eurozone et de l’UE. L’entrée au Bundestag de l’AfD, notamment si cette dernière dépasse le score des trois autres « petits » partis, va changer la donne politique en Allemagne.

***

Retrouvez l’article de Hans Stark sur Cairn.

S’abonner à Politique étrangère.

The Rohingya Muslims are not the only victims of the ethnic cleansing presently going on in Myanmar. Hindu homes are reportedly being burned and looted while the international community continues to only focus on the plight of Rohingya Muslims.

In recent days, the international community is outraged by the ethnic cleansing that is currently going on in Myanmar against the Muslims but has not focused as much on other communities that have been targeted. The recent spike of violence broke out on August 25, when militants attacked governmental forces. In response, the Myanmar government committed numerous crimes against humanity. Human Rights Watch has released satellite imagery regarding 450 buildings being burned down in Rohingya neighborhoods, stressing: “The widespread destruction of urban areas in Maungdaw town suggests that Burmese security forces are not just attacking Rohingya Muslims in isolated villages.”

Following that, the UN has condemned Myanmar for committing “textbook ethnic cleansing” while estimating that 1,000 people by September 7 have been killed. Meanwhile, the Telegraph reported that over 310,000 people have fled to Bangladesh. However, contrary to the perception in the West, the ethnic cleansing that is presently occurring is not entirely a case of Buddhist against Muslim violence. Numerous Hindus have also fallen victim to this conflict. Since August 25, over 500 Hindus have also fled to Bangladesh. At least 86 Hindus have been killed and over 200 Hindus have fled to the forests in recent days. Hindu homes are reportedly being burned and looted. And the crisis is only getting worse by the day.

Shipan Kumar Basu, the head of the Hindu Struggle Committee, claimed that the Hindu refugees in Bangladesh are not being taken care of properly and their plight is being ignored by the international community: “Hundreds of Rohingya Hindu Families have been butchered by the Rohingya Muslims but nobody cares about them. There have been cases of Rohingya Hindus being systematically and forcefully lured by Rohingya Muslims into bad marriages. They have killed many members of Hindu families. No government and no NGO has come forward to look into this crisis.”

A Hindu refugee described the murder of her husband: “They beat my husband. Then they took us to the mountains. They said that if you give us your gold, we won’t cut your husband. They then took all my gold and cut my husband. 8 people then took us to the camp to make us Muslim. They told us that you must become Muslim and marry. They said that the Hindu religion is not a religion. You worship ghosts. If you die, then you burn.” She claimed that it was the Muslim insurgents and not the Myanmar government that has targeted her: “The government army of Myanmar did not torture us. The government has taken responsibility for our brothers and sisters.”

Another Hindu refugee related that insurgents dressed in black barred him and his family from leaving their home: “They threatened to kill us.” A relative who went to his sons’ house with rice and food was murdered by the insurgents: “I agree to live in Bangladesh or India. We do not want to go back to Myanmar.” A woman named Promila has also become a refugee. All her family members of 8 persons have been butchered by extremists. Another woman named Anika is 6 months pregnant. Her family of 4 have also been killed. There is no trace of her husband.

However, the atrocities experienced by the Rohingya Hindus is not the only issue. According to Basu, the Rohingya Hindus that flee to Bangladesh are not getting the same level of good treatment that the Rohingya Muslim refugees receive: “My appeal to the Bangladeshi government is that they should not differentiate between religions and extend help to all. Sheikh Hasina is showing so much kindness to the Rohingya Muslims. Reports are leaking out of an Awami League offshoot having good relations with them. They also have links with the ISI in Pakistan. So, it is my assumption that the Awami League Party under Sheikh Hasina might have had a hand in the insurgency butchering Rohingya Hindus.”

While the international community is greatly disturbed by the plight of the Muslims in Myanmar, where are their tears for the Hindus that have been persecuted within the country? These kinds of atrocities should also be condemned by the international community. The Rohingya Hindus of Myanmar want to live in peace and harmony. The terrorist radicals must be stopped regardless which religion that they belong to. The crisis must be solved as soon as possible and all of the communities must live in peace and tranquility.

The post Is the International Community neglecting the Rohingya Hindus? appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Tesa May to deliver Brexit speech in Italy as talks with EU stumble. UN General Assembly meets. German elections likely to keep Merkel in power. Saudi Arabia embraces tech reform. All in The Week Ahead.

Theresa May delivers Brexit speech in Italy as talks with EU stumble

This Friday, British Prime Minister Theresa May will deliver a speech in Florence to discuss the progression of Brexit and the vision she has for a post-Brexit arrangement between the UK and the EU. This follows last week’s postponement of the most recent round of negotiations between the UK and EU on Brexit. The May spokesmen have been cagey on what exactly she intends to say, which is likely due to the three players in this saga with frequently contradictory goals: the hard Brexiters principally in May’s Conservative Party who desire a totally clean break from the EU; the soft Brexiters and those opposed to Brexit entirely that wish to maintain cohesion with the EU which includes most businesses; and EU negotiators who must contend with the EU block’s goals and desire to not discuss any post-Brexit arrangement without addressing every issue leading up to Brexit.

One of the things EU Brexit negotiators will be looking for in this speech is whether the May government intends to follow through on its “divorce bill” to pay for EU budgetary requirements — the May government has waffled on this issue, contesting both the bill itself as well as the estimates offered by EU negotiators. Equally as likely — if not more likely given rumors the speech won’t address the divorce bill —  is a more ambivalent speech calling for some maintenance of the status quo in a transitional arrangement, given her precarious majority in Parliament.

UN General Assembly meets

This Tuesday, the UN General Assembly General Debate will convene, with the theme “Focusing on People: Striving for Peace and a Decent Life for All on a Sustainable Planet.” Already, side discussions are slated to discuss climate change, with one meeting scheduled for Monday between White House advisor Gary Cohn and a slate of representatives from other major economies. In addition, the continued plight of the Rohingya in Myanmar with over 350,000 fleeing to Bangladesh in the past 2 months — which has been cited by multiple sources as ethnic cleansing — will be discussed among UN members, making Aung Sang Suu Kyi’s absence from the Assembly debate notable. President Trump is also slated to hold a meeting on Monday on reforming the UN, including strengthening the Secretary-General again. He is also slated to criticize the level of contribution the US is providing to the UN, which is likely to ruffle feathers. The presidents of Russia and Mexico are not expected to attend, denying the ability of one-on-one discussions between the US president and either of his counterparts.

German elections likely to keep Merkel in power

On Sunday, voters will head to the polls to elect Germany’s next Chancellor and members to the 630-member Bundestag. It will represent the first election since Chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision to let in nearly 900,000 Middle East refugees. It will also represent the first opportunity for Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) to contest seats at the national level after securing seats at the state level.

From March until now, the main opposition party SPD has steadily lost support while support for Merkel’s conseravtive CDU/CSU has risen. Polling from last week placed the conservatives with around 37% support, while the SPD remained 14 points down at 23%. Far-left Die Linke was at 10% while the far-right AfD was close behind at 9.5%. As a result, the likely outcome is for the CDU/CSU to emerge with a commanding lead, followed by the SPD and left and right leaning parties vying for 3rd place. The shape of a Merkel coalition may end up similar to the current “grand coalition” between the CDU/CSU and SPD, or a coalition between the CDU/CSU and some smaller parties such as the FDP and Greens.

Merkel is likely to lock out the AfD from any coalition: a current government minister last week called the AfD manifesto unconstitutional, and a leaked email from an AfD leader calling for  “genetic unity” has sent tremors throughout mainstream German political parties on left and right. Blocking the AfD would prove similar to moves by the Dutch, Italian, and British governments in past instances to keep out far-right political parties from coalitions, even at the expense of ideological preferences.

Saudi Arabia embraces tech in sign of further reforms

This week, the Saudi Minister for Communications and Information Technology will permit WhatsApp, Skype, and Viber to operate within the kingdom after the video calling apps were blocked by the Saudi government in 2013. Included in this arrangement is an agreement that these companies will provide quarterly reports of customer complaints, while government agencies will heavily monitor the three sites. The agreement between the tech companies and the Saudi government is part of a larger initiative called Vision 2030, which aims to improve technology in the Kingdom and move the country to a more digital society. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s initiative to diversify the Saudi economy on the government’s terms has run into some challenges, although it looks to the UAE as a model for technological and social liberalization without political mobilization. In addition to consumers being able to rely on these services, businesses operating in Saudi Arabia will be able to operate more smoothly in an international context. The UAE still blocks Skype and has given indications it will continue to do so.

The Week Ahead provides analytical foresight on the economic consequences of upcoming political developments. Covering a number of future occurrences across the globe, The Week Ahead presents a series of potential upside/downside risks, shedding light on how political decisions affect economic outcomes.

This edition of The Week Ahead was written by GRI Senior Analyst Brian Daigle.

The post The Week Ahead appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Cette recension a été publiée dans le numéro d’automne de Politique étrangère (n°3/2017). Jérôme Marchand propose une analyse de l’ouvrage de Robert Jervis, How Statesmen Think: The Psychology of International Politics (Princeton University Press, 2017, 304 pages).

Robert Jervis, auteur du magistral Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton University Press, 1976), nous ­propose un recueil de textes publiés entre 1982 et 2010 dans des revues scientifiques ou des ouvrages collectifs. Certaines contributions ont été actuali­sées. C’est le cas notamment de celle traitant de la théorie des ­dominos (chapitre 11), qui s’est délestée de passages consacrés aux postures USA-URSS du temps de la guerre froide. L’auteur n’a pas pour autant procédé à un grand travail de réécriture, ce dont on lui saura gré.

Une fois complétée la première ­lecture, la juxtaposition de textes connus et moins connus, étalés sur plus de 25 ans, s’avère précieuse pour comprendre comment Jervis a enrichi ses réflexions, et adapté ses interrogations aux problèmes de sécurité du XXIe siècle. Le tout sans se départir de sa curiosité pour les matériaux empiriques et les cas d’étude historiques. Ni renoncer à comprendre ce qui amène des acteurs a priori « éclairés » à former de faux jugements sur eux-mêmes, leurs adversaires, leurs manières respectives de traiter les situations conflictuelles, leurs coups optimaux, puis à s’y accrocher.

S’agissant de sa structure, How Statesmen Think se divise en quatre ­sections. L’ouvrage examine d’abord les concepts clés de la psychologie politique (croyances, inconsistances…), puis passe aux biais cognitifs et aux schémas heuristiques préférentiels des grands décideurs (chapitres 3 et 4). Vient ensuite une série de textes observant les connexions entre ces acquis et certains des problèmes récurrents auxquels font face théoriciens et praticiens des relations internationales : distorsions entre la projection de signaux intentionnels et le décodage opéré par les destinataires, mauvaise articulation entre leaders gouvernementaux et renseignement d’État, impact des identités nationales sur les représentations de l’adversaire principal… Également à signaler dans cette troisième partie : un essai plus abstrait, « Political Psychology Research and Theory » (chapitre 6), qui évoque les multiples obstacles empêchant l’optimisation graduelle des processus décisionnels. La dernière partie de l’ouvrage aborde la manière dont les perceptions élitaires de la « réalité objective » affectent le décodage des crises et des scénarios de crise.

Dans un style exigeant, How Statesmen Think donne à la fois d’abondants exemples et de multiples aperçus conceptuels. Certaines sections manquent peut-être de limpidité. C’est le cas, notamment, de « Psychology and Crisis Stability » (chapitre 10). Plus généralement, le découpage thématique laisse un sentiment de flottement, la transition entre les chapitres se faisant par bonds. Un esprit grincheux relèverait en outre que l’auteur revient sans cesse sur la confrontation ­USA-URSS du temps de la guerre froide, au risque de négliger ce qui se passe dans des environnements moins structurés et moins « ritualisés ». Mais dans l’ensemble les vertus prédominent. Compte tenu des blancs laissés par la théorie du choix rationnel et la théorie des jeux, ce type d’ouvrage enrichit considérablement la compréhension des « boîtes noires » d’où se dégagent les buts et les choix de politique étrangère des États-nations modernes. Et il livre bien entendu une multitude de clés utiles pour comprendre et anticiper les risques que pose la twitto-présidence Trump.

Jérôme Marchand

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(Own report) - Leading EU functionaries, with the support of German business associations, are demanding that the EU free trade offensive be extended to Australia and New Zealand. Last week, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker announced the initiation of agreements to this effect. At the same time, Berlin and Brussels are pushing for the finalization of the Japan-EU Free Trade Agreement (JEFTA) - up against growing protest. Whereas, protectionist measures are designed to reduce China's influence in the EU's Eastern and Southeastern periphery, Berlin and Brussels are planning to reinforce their activities in the emerging People's Republic of China's neighborhood, by pursuing the US strategy of trade containment of China that Trump has abandoned.

Longtemps structurés d'une autre manière qu'à l'Ouest, les grands clubs de football sont devenus le caprice d'oligarques aux fortunes parfois mal acquises. / Europe de l'Est, Roumanie, Capitalisme, Économie, Inégalités, Médias, Personnalités, Racisme, Spéculation, Sport, Violence - (...) / Europe de l'Est, Roumanie, Capitalisme, Économie, Inégalités, Médias, Personnalités, Racisme, Spéculation, Sport, Violence - 2014/06

Les Colombiens éliront leur nouveau président à la fin du mois de mai. Un candidat proche de l'ancien dirigeant Alvaro Uribe s'opposera à l'actuel chef de l'Etat, M. Juan Manuel Santos. / Amérique latine, Bolivie, Brésil, Chili, Colombie, Venezuela, Capitalisme, Économie, Idéologie, Mutation, Parti (...) / Amérique latine, Bolivie, Brésil, Chili, Colombie, Venezuela, Capitalisme, Économie, Idéologie, Mutation, Parti politique, Politique, Socialisme, Amérique du Sud - 2014/05

Le blog Reflets du Temps, qui consacre une large place aux questions internationales, a publié mercredi 13 septembre un article mettant à l’honneur le numéro d’été (n° 2/2017) de Politique étrangère : « ASEAN : 50 ans d’une expérience singulière ».

 

Inattendu, peut-être, ce regard sur la revue de PE de l’IFRI, cet été, mais bien réel. Que d’idées reçues, en effet, toutes faites et boulonnées, dans nos représentations, et en géopolitique, pas moins qu’ailleurs ! Le propre des chercheurs étant de les désigner et de tenter de les redresser. Dans ce numéro, la pêche est particulièrement bonne pour les lieux où stagnent les idées reçues, et réjouissants, leur déboulonnage et, sans doute, la saine déstabilisation qui suit, seule capable de faire avancer notre regard sur le monde, première mission que se donne l’IFRI.

Le sujet principal, ASEAN ; 50 ans d’une expérience singulière, est un nid d’idées reçues, notamment par sa situation périphérique dans les informations quotidiennes que nous utilisons, et, par ces monceaux d’ignorance, ces lacunes, et autres trous d’ombre, dans « notre » géopolitique personnelle, se révélant reléguée à un « quelque chose d’uni, aux bords de la grande Chine ». Fondée en 1967, l’ASEAN, allie Indonésie, Malaisie, Singapour, Philippines, Thaïlande, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Birmanie, Cambodge, unis en cercles progressifs. Union d’Asie du Sud-Est, à la fois comparable, au premier regard du moins, à notre Union européenne, et tellement différente – parallèle pédagogique énoncé dès l’introduction. On a là une marche discrète et continue, des « procédures et institutions légères, sans gouvernement central, ni fantasme d’unification politique » ; l’idée reçue chez nous étant – là, comme ailleurs, mais là, significativement – de penser tout à notre aulne, que nos analyses, procédures et même difficultés sont modélisables à l’infini. Or, si l’ASEAN sera demain bien obligée de marcher différemment avec l’émergence chinoise et son poids, l’IFRI rappelle à notre point de vue européen que « le monde est tout humain, mais nous ne sommes pas toute l’humanité ». Cinq forts articles devraient participer à « nous caler » le regard, sur cette fondamentale partie du monde.

La rubrique Contrechamps s’attaque avec deux articles essentiels à l’Union européenne, particulièrement :« Zone Euro : sous les dettes, la croissance ? ». Crise, croissance, dettes… triptyque d’importance en matière de représentations tenaces et peut-être fallacieuses, en matière de thèse, point de vue arrêté, genre front contre front, encore davantage. Quel débat, chez nous, n’aborde pas, même aux marges, ce sujet ?

Un premier article, très argumenté : « Les politiques européennes et le futur de l’Euro » met à mal « l’interprétation politique dominante accusant les excès de dette publique accumulés par des pays du sud, dits indisciplinés, ayant ainsi financé leur État providence ». Idée reçue, s’il en est, dans l’imaginaire de chacun sur les problèmes actuels d’une Europe en dérive, voire en échec. Des responsables désignés, pas vraiment loin du bouc-émissaire, toujours utile. On reconnaît dans le développement des pans entiers d’opinions politiques, partitaires, en France et en Europe. Mais, les compétences économiques de l’auteur, sa capacité pédagogique à poser les idées reçues, les décrypter avant d’avancer d’autres hypothèses étayées, donnent à cet exposé une force convaincante et armée qui manque à plus d’un débat. Le second article se pose « en face », et nous y reconnaissons là aussi l’argumentaire face B, prôné dans maints débats ; les mêmes évidemment : « stabilité et croissance en zone euro ; les leçons de l’expérience ». Le « retour au réel » est fortement convoqué ; « la croissance et l’emploi ne proviennent pas des miracles de la manne répandue par les États ou des fabricants de bulles spéculatives, mais bien du travail productif, de l’épargne et de l’investissement ».

Confrontant ces deux lectures, toujours étayées, comme d’usage à PE, de références multiples et précises, faut-il dire qu’on en sort, interrogés, mieux armés face à ce temps européen qui est notre logiciel indépassable.

Pour lire l’article en entier, cliquez ici.

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A letter to the many distinguished visitors from abroad in NYC for the 72nd Session of the United Nations General Assembly:

Apologia de profundis* re Trumpus

​(*apologia – a defense; profundis – out of the depths)

You may well be visiting New York City for the first time in awhile–perhaps not since last year’s 71st Session of the United Nations General Assembly.

If so, you may be wondering: Is this America? Yes, it has changed.

As a native New Yorker and as a proud, engaged American of ripe age, please let me explain the case of President Donald Trump at the 2017 United Nations General Assembly. I hope to assuage your concern about America, its potential effect on your country and the world.

The headline of this apologia might well have been: Please be patient with us. We are coming back.

Consider:

Donald Trump is not “America”–not by a long shot. Yes, he was elected constitutionally. You may know, however, that our seriously outdated electoral system doesn’t necessarily reward the presidency to the candidate winning the popular vote. That’s what happened in 2016. More than 65 million Americans voted against him.

Mr.Trump doesn’t have a “base”; he has a “core” of supporters: Trump’s Tangle of Rhetorical Inadequacy. His approval rating has declined precipitously since inauguration. And recent polls indicate that his “America first” world view is increasingly unpopular Analysis The pillars of Trump’s nationalism are weakening .

​America has numerous institutions to restrict an authoritarian president. Many are hard at this right now. Mind the commitment and progress being made by investigative journalists; non-governmental organizations; opposition within his political party and in opposing parties; civil society; religious and academic institution; and members of the legal profession.

Americans are fully aware that he is unreliable, unethical and unstable. A large majority is greatly disturbed being represented by an uninformed opportunist. He honed a strategy of bluff and bluster replete with “U-turns” and “S-swerves” in amassing a real estate empire often requiring bankruptcy protection and legal chicanery.

He has brought this style–creating mass uncertainty and anxiety–to national governance, most recently with our Dreamworks Act, but also as with national health insurance and many foreign affairs policies. He believes that such mendacity and confusion is sustainable in the U.S. Presidency. He is wrong.

We acknowledge that one of the most upsetting international prospects we now face is the Trump threat to remove the U.S. from the historic 2015 six nation nuclear deal with Iran. The most cogent summary of this potential dangerous reversal in U.S policy can be found in the following New York Times article “A Devious Threat to a Nuclear Deal“.

Above all, America is a nation of laws and the Trump administration is now under scrutiny on many issues in many venues. As we know, the arc of justice does bend slowly. But many Americans are working diligently to see to it that it does indeed bend to justice–and harmony–in our beloved country.

For these and many other reasons, yes, please be patient with us. America will come back. And we will once again be a responsible, contributing member of the world community.

Written by John Paluszek, Executive Editor, Business in Society

www.businessinsociety.net

@Biz_in_Society

The post Apologia de Profundis re Trumpus appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Cette recension a été publiée dans le numéro d’automne de Politique étrangère (n°3/2017). Aurélien Denizeau propose une analyse de l’ouvrage de Jana J. Jabbour, La Turquie. L’invention d’une diplomatie émergente (CNRS Éditions, 2017, 344 pages).

Alors que la Turquie traverse une série de crises intérieures qui mettent en danger son caractère démocratique, et que sa diplomatie n’en finit pas de surprendre, cet ouvrage apporte un éclairage original sur une politique étrangère parfois déroutante. C’est sous l’angle de l’émergence que Jana Jabbour choisit d’aborder ce thème : il s’agit pour elle de démontrer comment l’activisme diplomatique turc est en réalité symptomatique d’une
« diplomatie émergente ».

Dès les premiers chapitres, ce concept est explicité : puissance moyenne aspirant à une plus grande place dans les relations internationales contemporaines, la Turquie poursuit cet objectif par un activisme tous azimuts, tâchant en particulier de se ménager une sphère d’influence dans son environnement régional, au Moyen-Orient. De manière assez classique, l’ouvrage est divisé en trois grandes parties présentant respectivement la genèse de cette doctrine diplomatique originale, les outils sur lesquels elle peut s’appuyer, et les limites qu’elle rencontre. Ce dernier thème, en particulier, permet de comprendre comment une doctrine qui paraissait si ambitieuse s’est montrée incapable de répondre aux défis posés par les révolutions arabes et la guerre civile syrienne.

L’ouvrage de Jana Jabbour tombe à point nommé pour faire une synthèse de la politique étrangère mise en œuvre par Ankara depuis le début des années 2000. Il permet d’éclairer les ressorts et les objectifs de cette « diplomatie émergente » et, par là même, de questionner plus généralement la notion d’émergence dans les relations internationales. En ce sens, cet ouvrage n’intéressera pas seulement les spécialistes de la Turquie, ou les néophytes désireux de mieux comprendre sa politique étrangère, mais également ceux qui travaillent sur d’autres puissances émergentes. L’ouvrage est d’ailleurs émaillé de comparaisons avec des pays comme l’Inde, la Chine ou le Brésil, qui permettent de comprendre les stratégies mises en place par ces puissances moyennes, tout en soulignant la spécificité turque. En effet, et de l’aveu même de l’auteur, la diplomatie mise en œuvre par Ankara se distingue, parmi les puissances émergentes, par son ancrage dans une région très instable, mais aussi et surtout par son refus d’une opposition frontale aux pays occidentaux.

Dans certains chapitres, Jana Jabbour approfondit des thèmes plus spécifiques, qui ouvrent de nouvelles interrogations sur la politique intérieure et extérieure turque. On s’intéressera notamment à la question des think tanks turcs ; l’auteur explique comment ces derniers, plutôt que de produire un travail d’analyse objective, ont joué le rôle de courroie de transmission du gouvernement turc, se chargeant tout à la fois de légitimer
« scientifiquement » ses orientations diplomatiques nouvelles, et de rétablir des liens avec les sociétés civiles moyen-orientales. Plus généralement, l’auteur aborde la question des organismes non étatiques (ONG, minorités ethniques, groupes d’influence) utilisés par la diplomatie turque. Elle rappelle notamment le rôle joué dans cette dernière par la puissante confrérie de Fethullah Gülen, aujourd’hui accusée par le président Recep Tayyip Erdogan d’avoir fomenté le coup d’État manqué de juillet 2016, mais qui a largement facilité dans les années 2000 la politique publique turque vis-à-vis du Moyen-Orient, de l’Afrique et de l’Asie centrale.

Aurélien Denizeau

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Un extrait de « La Liquidation », un roman d'anticipation de l'économiste Laurent Cordonnier. / Économie, Femmes, Finance, Informatique, Internet, Mutation, Spéculation, Technologies de l'information, Technologie, Fiction, Commerce, Sexualité - (...) / Économie, Femmes, Finance, Informatique, Internet, Mutation, Spéculation, Technologies de l'information, Technologie, Fiction, Commerce, Sexualité - 2014/05

/ Inde, Économie, Éducation, Pauvreté, Santé - Asie / Inde, Économie, Éducation, Pauvreté, Santé - Asie