Diplomacy & Crisis News

Il y a vingt-cinq ans, pour la première fois dans l'histoire, un traité international plaçait les enfants au cœur de la sphère politique. / Action humanitaire, Conflit, Droit international, Droits humains, Enfance, Éducation, Histoire, Idées, Jeunes, ONG, Santé, Solidarité, Violence, Droits de (...) / Action humanitaire, Conflit, Droit international, Droits humains, Enfance, Éducation, Histoire, Idées, Jeunes, ONG, Santé, Solidarité, Violence, Droits de l'enfant - 2015/11

Dans les pays en guerre, les souffrances endurées prennent naturellement le pas sur la réflexion. C'est pour que les valeurs de la solidarité l'emportent sur les préjugés que des associations comme le Secours populaire français organisent des rencontres entre enfants d'origines différentes. Les « (...) / France, Liban, Proche-Orient, Syrie, Action humanitaire, Conflit, Droit international, Enfance, Jeunes, ONG, Réfugiés, Santé, Solidarité, Associations, Droits de l'enfant - 2015/11

 

Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) and Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong (right) wave as they leave the Presidential Palace for the Headquarters of the Vietnam Communist Party for official talks in Hanoi on November 5, 2015. Photo: Hoang Dinh Nam/Reuters

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Vietnam this week, the first by a Chinese president in ten years, drew mixed reaction among the Vietnamese.  Beijing has come under criticism in recent months by Hanoi for its dredging of sand to create approximately 3,000 acres (1,200 hectares) of land on submerged reefs in the South China Sea over the last 18 months.  China’s island building and other efforts to assert its control over the disputed South China Sea—in the face of competing claims from Vietnam, as well as Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Taiwan—have resulted in Beijing coming under fire for perceived violations of international law, including the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and a declaration of conduct reached in 2002 by members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Vietnam and other Southeast Asian nations not only challenge China’s claims of sovereignty, they fear the militarization of these islands, as Chinese companies busy themselves constructing airstrips, radar systems and other potential military facilities on the reclaimed islands.  The Chinese now control two airstrips on Fiery Cross Reef and Subi Reef and are reportedly constructing a third airstrip on Mischief Reef, all of which belong to the Spratly island chain of the South China Sea.

While the international press focus on the paranoia of the U.S. and many Southeast Asian countries over China’s island-building and aggressive actions in the disputed South China Sea, here in Vietnam the paranoia runs deeper. Prior to Xi’s visit, Vietnamese President Truong Tan Sang stated, “as Mr. Xi Jinping claims that the islands have belonged to China since ancient times, we would like to counter-argue that statement.  The Spratlys and Paracels have always belonged to Vietnam, and we have all historical and legal evidence to support our sovereignty.

Hanoi reacted angrily last month to news of a Chinese ceremony held to mark the completion of lighthouses constructed on Cuateron Reef and Johnson South Reef in the Spratly islands. Vietnamese Foreign Ministry spokesman Le Hai Binh said the construction of lighthouses “seriously violates Vietnam’s sovereignty … complicates the situation and escalates tensions.” Beijing claims the lighthouses were constructed to assist all seafaring nations with navigation while Hanoi believes the construction of lighthouses is merely an attempt to assert sovereignty.

Hanoi has also disputed Beijing’s adoption of a national marine zoning plan, as reported by Chinese media on August 21.  The 380,000 square kilometers zone includes the disputed maritime territories of the Paracel and Spratly archipelagos, and sets aside maritime zones for exploitation and development, while leaving aside some wholly-protected areas.  The prioritized zone for exploitation and development includes waters adjacent to the China’s Hainan Province and the Gulf of Tonkin near Vietnam.

Similarly, the paranoia over China’s claims of sovereignty have extended to the Vietnamese mainland.  According to recent issues of two English-language newspapers, Thanh Nien and Tuoi Tre, Chinese buyers are suspected of using locals to purchase prime waterfront properties in the central Vietnamese city of Da Nang.  According to the municipal authorities in Da Nang, 13 coastal land plots appear to have been sold to local Vietnamese-run businesses—with mostly Chinese suspected of providing the cash. A new Vietnamese housing law came into effect July 1, prohibiting the purchase of land by foreigners, and allowing only the lease of apartments or houses for a 50-year period.

While some of the land apparently has been used to build seaside hotels and restaurants catering to Chinese tourists, others fear an alternative agenda. At a recent meeting among the city’s leaders, department director Nguyen Dieu warned that the purchase of land by foreigners, mostly Chinese, “poses huge risks” while the secretary of the city’s Party Committee, Tran Tho, called the land purchases “very dangerous.” Le Cao, a local attorney, warned “we have to remain cautious as foreign ownership of coastal land plots can affect the national defense and security.” Authorities in Da Nang are now looking into the purchases in an effort to trace the origin of the cash.

The central coastal city of Da Nang is particularly sensitive to Chinese investment—last December two construction projects were suspended, and yet another has been refused to be licensed as their locations were deemed sensitive areas in terms of national defense. One of the suspended projects in Da Nang was for the cultivation of vegetables, another project was to offer tours of coral reefs in glass-bottomed submarines, while a third project involved the construction of a wharf complex for cruise boats and paragliding. In each case, Vietnam’s Command of Military Zone 5 rejected the investments, citing potential threats to national defense and security.

Vietnamese authorities certainly have the right to uphold their own sovereignty on the undisputed mainland, although these hidden purchases probably have more to do with economic and monetary considerations rather than covert military planning. Rather, the rejection of Chinese investment can be better understood as a reflection upon the deeply-ingrained paranoia the Vietnamese feel when it comes to the Chinese.  Vietnamese paranoia has grown and morphed in the wake of centuries of living under the suzerainty of Chinese dynasties, the 1974 clash over the Paracel Islands, the brief and bloody invasion of 1979 (Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping said he wanted to teach the Vietnamese “a lesson”), and finally, reflected in the angry protests of May 2014—triggered by the deployment of a Chinese oil rig into Vietnam’s economic exclusive zone.

While Chinese President Xi was welcomed to Hanoi on Thursday with a rare 21-gun salute and warm handshakes, outside the Chinese Embassy in Hanoi about 30 people protested briefly and a larger anti-China protest took place on the streets of Ho Chi Minh City. Despite the warm rhetoric between politicians, and the pledges of cooperation between Communist brothers, fear, paranoia and anger still linger.

 

 

Le Liban accueille 1,1 million de réfugiés syriens, l'équivalent d'un quart de sa population. Afin de désamorcer les tensions sur le terrain, les associations se mobilisent pour que les enfants ne reproduisent pas les préjugés de leurs parents. / Liban, Proche-Orient, Syrie, Action humanitaire, (...) / Liban, Proche-Orient, Syrie, Action humanitaire, Christianisme, Conflit, Immigrés, Islam, Jeunes, Migrations, ONG, Racisme, Réfugiés, Religion, Solidarité, Associations - 2015/11

Mal représenté au Conseil de sécurité des Nations unies (ONU), dont aucun pays africain n'est membre permanent, le continent noir est pourtant celui où les interventions de l'ONU sont les plus nombreuses. Le Sahel est une sorte de « zone des tempêtes » où s'activent bandes armées, djihadistes et (...) / Afrique, France, Armée, Conflit, Criminalité, Géopolitique, Relations Nord-Sud, Relations internationales, Violence, Maghreb, Organisation internationale - Afrique

لەو کاتەوە کە داعش دەستی بە داگیرکردنی چەند ناوچەیەکی بەرچاوی عێراق و باکوری سوریا کرد لێکۆڵەرەوە و ڕاوێژکارەکان سەرنجیان بۆ پرسێک ڕاکێشرا: ئایە باشە ئەمریکا کوردەکان پڕچەک بکات لە جەنگی دژی گروپێکی تیرۆرستیی جیهادی یاخود نا.

Burundi again faces the possibility of mass atrocities and civil war. Escalating violence, increasingly hardline rhetoric and the continued stream of refugees (more than 200,000) indicate that divisions are widening, and the “national dialogue” is doing little to relieve the mounting tensions. According to Crisis Group’s sources as well as media reports, it appears that President Pierre Nkurunziza and those around him intend to use force to end the protests that have been held in Bujumbura since April. The president made public an ultimatum giving the “criminals” seven days to lay down arms. Révérien Ndikuriyo, the Senate president, cryptically warned on 1 November that the police would soon go to “work” and asked district heads to identify “elements which are not in order”. The language is unambiguous to Burundians and chillingly similar to that used in Rwanda in the 1990s before the genocide.

Pendant six mois, seule contre tous, la Grèce a été clouée au pilori par ses partenaires lors de réunions innombrables et interminables. Ministre grec des finances pendant ces affrontements entre Bruxelles, Berlin et Athènes, M. Yanis Varoufakis revient sur les divers épisodes de la guerre d'usure (...) / Allemagne, France, Grèce, Banque, Dette, Économie, Finance, Monnaie, Politique, Crise financière - 2015/08

/ Afrique, France, Armée, Conflit, Géopolitique, Sécurité, Terrorisme, Drogue - Afrique / Afrique, France, Armée, Conflit, Géopolitique, Sécurité, Terrorisme, Drogue - Afrique

A Libyan rebel in April 2011 with a complete SA-7 shoulder-fired missile system. Thousands of the antiaircraft missiles, an older Eastern Bloc model, are believed to be missing. Credit Chris Chivers/The New York Times

This week, A Russian Metrojet airliner Airbus A321 crashed after departing from Sharm El Sheikh on route to St. Petersburg. The Egyptian resort is a well-travelled destination in the Sinai Peninsula, but also has had occasional issues with terror attacks. The Sinai has been the source of much conflict between the Egyptian army and various radical groups. Victims of the crash were mostly Russian citizens, with victims also coming from Ukraine as well as Belarus.

The cause of the crash is not yet known, but witnesses claim that the airliner looked to have fire coming from one of the engines and saw the plane break up midair. It is unclear how reliable this information is, but on November 2nd officials made suggestions that it did not occur from technical or pilot error. Claims from some ISIS-affiliated groups that they brought down the airliner were refuted by the Russian and Egyptian governments, and the case has not been resolved with the cause of the accident remaining unknown. It was suggested that the airliner had been struck by an external object, but the information is not yet conclusive on what that object may have been.

Without a technical issue nor pilot error being the cause of the crash, attention has turned toward a possible external object hitting the plane. The object may have fallen off the plane itself or be a possible missile strike on the plane. Sabotage or an internal attack within the fuselage of the A321 may also have been possible, but to date no theory has proven to be conclusive.

If the fire on the engine did occur, it is unlikely that an internal combustion caused a fire outside of the fuselage of the airplane. Sabotage may be a possibility, but with ground crew claiming that the plane was ready to fly with no issues, further investigation would be needed to qualify that type of action. A bird may also have caused some damage, but it is unlikely it would cause an engine fire and the plane to break up, as engines are designed to process birds and other obstructions.

With Russia’s new role in Syria and terror activities taking place in Sinai, theories on how and why an airliner could have been brought down by a possible attack has become the front page story for many media outlets. There are claims by some experts that while anti-aircraft missiles may have played a role in a possible external strike, the type of missiles needed to hit the airliner over 20,000ft were not present in the Sinai or possessed by radical groups in the area. Systems like the Buk or Tor, or even older systems like the Kub were not present in the area nor their large missiles spotted on radar in the area.

Suggestions that the groups in the area may possess the shoulder launched SA-7 series of missiles or a Chinese variant of the missile may validate the claim of an attack, but the upgraded SA-18 MANPAD that are possibly in the area can only reach targets under 17,000ft, and the airliner was at around 26,000ft to 31,000ft at the time of the accident. The aircraft being hit by missiles, shells or bullets at lower altitude after take-off may be possible, but unlikely.

The dissolution of the security structure in Libya and Syria may have lead to many shoulder launched anti-aircraft missiles like the SA-7, SA-14, SA-16, SA-18 and American Stinger coming into the hands of groups that may use such weapons against civilian targets. The effect of an anti-aircraft missile on the Malaysian airliners flight over Ukraine was horrific, but such advanced larger systems and missiles like the Buk-M1 are not easily hidden or transported. Small, portable missiles like the SA-18 are a danger to mostly lower flying aircraft, but could be used to bring down airliners in Egypt and other regions of the world. A concerted effort to collect and control such weapons should become a paramount issue for the international community.

Tout aurait dû conduire à un regain de la gauche en Europe. Et pourtant elle piétine presque partout. Cela explique sans doute que les regards se tournent vers l'Espagne, où le parti Podemos a fait preuve d'inventivité stratégique. Un pari que présente ici son secrétaire général. / Espagne, Europe, (...) / Espagne, Europe, Économie, Élections, Idées, Mouvement de contestation, Parti politique, Politique, Stratégie, Extrême gauche - 2015/07

L'analyse autant que la solution proposée dans « Le Capital au XXIe siècle », de Thomas Piketty refléteraient-elles la myopie du regard que nous portons sur le monde économique ? / France, Capitalisme, Économie, Finance, Fiscalité, Idées, Idéologie, Inégalités, Intellectuels, Libéralisme, Médias, (...) / France, Capitalisme, Économie, Finance, Fiscalité, Idées, Idéologie, Inégalités, Intellectuels, Libéralisme, Médias, Personnalités, Politique, Presse, Travail, Marxisme, Néolibéralisme - 2015/04

Tomorrow [assuming release on Wednesday] you will receive President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt in Downing Street. Few would deny the importance of maintaining contact with Egypt’s leadership, in light of the range of interests that the UK has with Egypt and the significant security threats emanating from the Middle East. But it would be incompatible with British and European interests and values to give President Sisi the endorsement of a Downing Street welcome without also making clear that Egypt’s current direction raises serious concerns. You should take this opportunity to press Mr. Sisi to ensure respect for the rule of law and human rights, and call on him to free more prisoners detained illegally or due to unjust laws.

(Own report) - With a special "team" the EU is seeking to create a pro-western media audience in the East European countries and the Caucasus - including Russia - as was confirmed by the German government in its response to a parliamentary interpellation. The EU's "East StratCom Team" seeks to establish networks with journalists in the countries of the EU's "Eastern Partnerships," and in Russia. It is also developing "communication campaigns" systematically aimed at the populations of these countries. "Young people" and academics are among the specially targeted audiences. Overall, the EU team is focusing on the urban middle classes, which, in large sectors of Eastern Europe are pro-western oriented and had significantly supported Ukraine's Maidan protests. Asked about the orientation of these activities, officially labeled as "support for media freedom," the German government has explained that the purpose is to "communicate" one's own position to the public, like the PR-work of governments, parties, and associations. The government has also confirmed that the EU team will examine the East European activities of Deutsche Welle (DW), Germany’s international broadcaster, for possible "synergy effects."

На крајот на летото Македонија прогласи вонредна состојба и привремено ги затвори своите граници со Грција и Србија. Малата балканска нација се придружи на поголемиот дел од Европа во паничниот, слабо разгледан и лошо имплементиран одговор на трагедијата со азилантите. Македонија е ситен играч во таа криза, која што достигнува димензии на Voelkerwanderung – масовно движење на лица со размери невидени на континентот после падот на Римската Империја. Но, како што летото преминува во есен, Македонија мора брзо и конструктивно да ѝ пристапи на нејзината домашна криза или да ризикува насилни судири.

Myanmar will go to the polls on Nov. 8 in what will be a landmark election. The main opposition National League for Democracy party will be contesting nationally for the first time in a generation. And if all goes as expected, next year Myanmar will see its first democratic transfer of power since 1960.

Le « deux poids, deux mesures » observé en matière de discours stigmatisants repose souvent sur une approche ethnoculturelle. Mais il se prête à une tout autre lecture, essentiellement sociale. / France, Histoire, Immigrés, Inégalités, Sécurité, Islam, Jeunes, Judaïsme, Médias, Migrations, Minorité (...) / France, Histoire, Immigrés, Inégalités, Sécurité, Islam, Jeunes, Judaïsme, Médias, Migrations, Minorité nationale, Droits des minorités, Mouvement de contestation, Police, Presse, Racisme, Religion, Société, Répression - 2015/02

Comprendre le conflit entre la Russie et l'Ukraine implique d'intégrer les points de vue concurrents de tous les acteurs. Mais, dans les chancelleries occidentales, les proclamations morales supplantent souvent l'analyse. / Russie, Ukraine, Conflit, État, Géopolitique, Idéologie, Nationalisme, (...) / Russie, Ukraine, Conflit, État, Géopolitique, Idéologie, Nationalisme, Relations internationales, Stratégie, Diplomatie, Frontières - 2014/04

As armed conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, Nigeria, South Sudan, Syria, Yemen, and elsewhere continued to inflict much suffering and instability around the world, the heads of the UN and International Committee of the Red Cross issued an unprecedented joint warning about the impact of today’s conflicts on civilians and called on states to redouble their efforts to find sustainable solutions to conflicts. Welcoming the call to action, Jean-Marie Guéhenno, President & CEO of the International Crisis Group, said: “It is imperative that the world do much more to respond to early warning signs and prevent wars breaking out in the first place”.

Cette recension d’ouvrages est issue de Politique étrangère (3/2015). Julien Brault propose une analyse de l’ouvrage de Matthieu Auzanneau, Or noir. La grande histoire du pétrole (Paris, La Découverte, 2015, 718 pages).

L’auteur analyse l’histoire du XXe siècle à travers celle du pétrole. Celui-ci est d’abord le produit de sociétés militarisées fondées sur la guerre mécanisée – la guerre de Sécession, la Première Guerre mondiale, le Blitzkrieg vu comme une gestion optimisée de l’énergie, jusqu’à l’usage du napalm au Vietnam. L’industrie pétrolière apparaît ainsi dans cet ouvrage comme un système monopolistique, coercitif et corrompu créé par les Rockfeller. Sauveurs du système financier américain à la fin du XIXe siècle, artisans de la création de la Fed, se présentant comme les grands défenseurs d’un système néolibéral dont ils seraient la banque, ceux-ci auraient orchestré une transformation du capitalisme en corporatisme. S’alliant successivement avec le charbon, le chemin de fer, l’automobile, l’agriculture, l’ingénierie, la banque, le fisc, la science et notamment la science économique, ce cartel international aux multiples ramifications connaîtrait depuis 1989 un renouveau, incarné notamment par JPMorgan et Citigroup. L’auteur souligne, à l’inverse, le rôle des figures qui combatirent Big Oil, de l’essor du Staline de la Bakou pétrolière aux luttes de Kennedy contre les majors.

C’est l’ensemble de l’histoire récente des relations internationales que l’auteur présente comme inféodé à l’or noir, en s’attachant au récit de ses événements marquants : percement du canal de Suez, accords Sykes-Picot, invasion de l’Éthiopie, création des organisations internationales après 1945, renversement de Mossadegh, mort de Mattei ou guerre du Biafra. Au centre du jeu : une alliance américano-saoudienne fondée sur les astuces fiscales des majors, le refus de la démocratie et le réinvestissement des pétrodollars. À ce titre, la crise pétrolière et ses conséquences – chômage, dette et restructurations néolibérales – sont interprétées comme profitant avant tout aux majors américaines. La révolution iranienne et la première guerre d’Afghanistan conduisent d’ailleurs à un renouveau rapide de la puissance américaine au Moyen-Orient, la CIA jouant les uns contre les autres, notamment pendant la guerre Iran-Irak. Le contre-choc pétrolier apparaît quant à lui comme un tribut payé par les Saoud à Washington pour accélérer la chute de l’empire soviétique. Georges W. Bush se garde d’ailleurs bien d’inquiéter les Saoudiens après le 11 Septembre, qui l’en remercieront en favorisant sa réélection. Au regard du chaos irako-syrien actuel, ce renouveau américain au Moyen-Orient apparaît aujourd’hui comme un échec, qui profite paradoxalement aux compagnies chinoises. La dernière facette de la question pétrolière est enfin écologique, et renvoie à un déclin, qui détermine aujourd’hui l’évolution d’une partie du système international.

Le livre pâtit d’un certain nombre de longueurs, de considérations philosophiques approximatives sur la nature du progrès, et d’un défaut d’analyse économique. L’auteur n’hésite ainsi pas à lier étroitement le pétrole à l’essor du fascisme, mais aussi à une libération des potentialités humaines… D’un indéniable talent littéraire, rempli de détails fouillés et de brillants passages, il comble néanmoins utilement un vide dans un champ traditionnellement dominé par l’historiographie anglo-saxonne.

S’abonner à Politique étrangère.