Sudan is in urgent need of a fresh democratic transition, and for an inclusive peace to avert negative scenarios.
By Ahmed H Adam and Ashley D Robinson
The Arab Spring that swept across the Middle East and succeeded in overthrowing three dictatorships in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya in 2011 was a pivotal point in the history of nations.
Despite the subsequent descent into the "Arab Winter", the peaceful protests of young people were heroic. The movement demonstrated the power of the people against the status quo and the grip of repressive regimes.
After the initial but short-lived success of the Arab Spring, many observers asked: "Why hasn't there been a Sudanese Spring?" Sudan's crisis had been no less severe, nor protracted than those of the Arab Spring countries.
In addition, two of the Arab Spring countries - Egypt and Libya - border Sudan. Omar al-Bashir, the Sudanese president, was quick to answer the question claiming that his coup 27 years ago was Sudan's version of the Arab Spring. "Those who are waiting for the Arab Spring to come will be waiting for a while," he said.
He explained that the Arab Spring in Sudan had already occurred through a bloodless revolution that he led against the democratically elected government of Prime Minister al-Sadiq al-Mahdi on June 30, 1989. Bashir's claim had astonished many in Sudan and across the globe.
Pioneers of uprisings
While the Sudanese people admire the Arab Spring, they do not appreciate the question of why the Sudanese have not followed suit.
They proudly believe that they are the pioneers of the art of popular uprisings in the region.
The Sudanese succeeded in overthrowing two military dictatorships through popular uprisings: They threw out the regime of General Ibrahim Abboud in October 1964 and the regime of General Jaafar Nimeiri in April 1985.
As in the April 1985 uprising, students today are leading the way in building momentum. Last April's surge in student protests should be seen as a continuation of a successful revolt, not as random pockets of unrest, says Mastour Mohamed, the secretary-general of the Sudanese Congress Party (SCP).
Indeed, the people of Sudan have made many efforts to break through the ceiling of a repressive regime.
In January 2011, anti-government protesters, inspired by the "Arab Spring" movements in Tunisia and Egypt demanded the departure of the regime.
Peaceful protesters were met with the regime's usual excessive use of force. Perhaps South Sudan's secession overshadowed the protesters' demands.
Demonstrations surged again in December of 2011, when students at the University of Khartoum staged a successful sit-in. Increasing economic and political fragility of what's left of Sudan, led the government to impose austerity measures.
Public announcements of these austerity measures brought protesters back on to the streets in the summer of 2012.
Rising fuel prices throughout 2013 also increased public outrage. The September popular uprising of 2013 was one of the milestones in the Sudanese quest for freedom and dignity. The uprising started in Nyla City in Darfur, and then swept across the country.
Again, protesters were met with a heavy and bloody crackdown. The notorious National Intelligence Security Services (NISS) killed more than 200 peaceful demonstrators.
Puncturing the wall of fear
Sudan cannot heal the wounds of its evil past as long as those who have inflicted such injustice are permitted to do so with impunity - and with the broken or hollow promises of peace from the international community.
As the regime's same old tactics rot it from the inside, those outside the regime feel the deterioration.
Those who previously benefited from the inequitable policies of Bashir's regime are feeling the consequences of their dwindling prospects. They are gaining greater perspective and empathy for their former ethnic rivals.
A student from Khartoum University, and a leading activist against the so-calledcorruption dams, stated that "the student activists are now fully aware of the regime's tactics and cannot be divided on racial or any other grounds."
Mohamed of the SCP argued that students have scaled the "wall of fear". "Risking their lives, students picked up tear gas canisters before they exploded and threw them back at the armed forces. Thus they fight back and do not quit," he said.
When asked why students have punctured the "wall of fear", Adam Musa, one of the leaders of the Darfuri Student Leagues Coalition, said: "We do not have another option. People are so bitter. The continuous excessive violence by the regime and our long accumulated trauma, has emboldened us to fight back."
Sudan shall not be failed
Sudan is geopolitically important for the region in the fight against terrorism, and in its efforts of humanitarian intervention for those migrating through Sudan's porous borders.
A united Sudan is vital for the stability and security of the region. However, current policies and leadership in the country continue to dissatisfy the people of Sudan.
The Arab mainstream media have not given the same coverage to the aspirations and efforts of the Sudanese people as they have to the neighbouring Arab Spring countries.
Sudan is in urgent need of a fresh democratic transition, and for an inclusive peace to avert the negative scenarios of Libya and Syria.
Perhaps such media attention would provide powerful insights into how to avoid another Bashir-like dictatorship for the countries which have fallen into the chaos of "Arab Winter".
The League of Arab States has failed to offer the Sudanese opposition forces and independent civil society any fair hearing, as they have been doing in Syria.
The league and its members should listen to Sudanese forces of change. The people of Sudan will eventually succeed in bringing about change in their country, as they did in 1964 and 1985.
The question is, what role will the Arab states play in the rebirth of this vital nation?
Ahmed H Adam is a visiting fellow at Cornell University's Institute for African Development, and a research fellow at the Department of Public Policy and Administration at the American University in Cairo.
Ashley D Robinson is a public policy and human rights expert. She obtained her master's degree from Columbia University, School of International and Public Affairs.
June 13, 2016 (KHARTOUM) - Sudanese government Monday, announced the official dissolution of Darfur Regional Authority (DRA) and Darfur Peace Office, indicating that the implementation of peace agreement in Darfur region.
The DRA was established in line with the Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD), which was signed in July 2011, by the Government of Sudan and former rebel Liberation and Justice Movement, and the Justice and Equality Movement-Dabajo in April 2013.
The regional body had a four-year mandate to implement the framework peace document. However, the DRA term was extended up to July 2016, by a presidential decree in 2015.
The dissolution was announced following a meeting of the High Committee for Peace in Darfur attended by First Vice President, Bakri Hassan Saleh, DRA Chairman, Tijani al-Sissi, DRA member, Bahr Abu Gaurda , the head of Darfur Peace Office, Amin Hassan Omer, and some DRA ministers.
However, the meeting agreed to maintain the High Committee for Peace in Darfur headed by President Omer al Bashir and the International Committee for DDPD Implementation Follow-Up headed by Qatar.
JEM Dabajo political advisor, Nahar Osman Nahar told Sudan Tribune that the meeting decided to dissolve the DRA officially. Nevertheless he added that DRA commissions and funds that didn't yet finish the implementation of their projects will be continue their activities under a new body to attached to the presidency.
“So, the DRA commissions will be directly supervised by the Presidency of the Republic. As for, the (former) DRA Chairman Tijani al-Sissi, the government will find a solution for his situation later,” said Nahar.
One the fate of DRA staff members, Nahar said they will be financially compensated based on years of service. Also some of them will be incorporated in the civil service in Darfur states and the central government while others will be absorbed in the newly established regional institutions.
“This marks the official end of the DRA, and some of its commissions will continue working most probably for one year,” added Nahar.
For his part, the Chairman of Darfur Peace Office, Amin Hassan Omer, told the media that the meeting concluded to establish a body at the presidency to oversee the DRA five commissions, stressing that the composition of the council of Development and Reconstruction Fund will be reviewed.
The head of DRA was accused in the past of controlling this vital fund and appointing the majority his supporters to its board.
Amin said the meeting discussed the procedures for dissolving DRA in July and attaching DRA Commission to the Presidency of the Republic. He added that the Darfur Peace Office is fully dissolved because it was a coordination body between the DRA and the federal government.
He pointed that the nomad and pastoralists commission will be dissolved and integrated into the Development and Reconstruction Fund.
The state minister at the presidency further said the meeting decided to maintain Darfur Special Criminal Court and resolved to ask the African Union and United Nations to send observers to the court.
The Chairman of DRA, Tijani al-Sissi, on his part reiterated that DRA commissions will continue implementing their projects, pointing that DRA has implemented 85% of DDPD items.
Last April, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared the end of DRA after the conduct of Darfur Administrative Referendum.
Darfur Administrative Referendum results indicated that 97.73 % of the voters have called for keeping the current five states, while 2.28% of the voters called for one region in Darfur.
Al-Sissi who is also a Fur tribal dignitary was the only political leader to call for the establishment of a single administration in the western Sudan region.
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June 13, 2016 (JUBA) - South Sudanese presidency comprising President Salva Kiir, First Vice President, Riek Machar, and Vice President, James Wani have not yet directed state governments and army command to establish cantonment sites for forces of the Sudan People's Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO) in the country.
A state governor in Bahr el Ghazal region revealed that the presidency has not yet acted upon their last week's consensus to establish cantonment areas for the opposition forces.
General Elias Waya, governor of the newly created Wau state, said he has not received any official directive from the presidency about the establishment of the cantonment sites for forces of SPLA-IO.
“I have no information about the establishment of the cantonment sites for SPLA-IO forces in the state. There is no official communication. No directives have been given from the presidency,” Governor Waya explained.
“Yes, we heard from the media the decision of the cabinet but this has to be operationalized. It has to be made official in writing,” he said when reached on Monday to comment on the establishment of cantonment sites.
Waya also described security situation in the area as calm and under control.
His comments echoed the explanation from a SPLA-IO's senior commander, General James Koang Chuol, who also said the Joint Military Ceasefire Committee (JMCC), of which he is a member, has not yet received official directive from the presidency to establish the cantonment sites.
Observers say the delay in the establishment of the cantonment sites for forces of the SPLA-IO in the country, specifically in the two regions of Bahr el Ghazal and Equatoria, continues to be a cause of current tensions and clashes between the two rival forces when coming into contacts during reconnaissance.
Others attribute the delay to lack of funds to facilitate movements of the officials who would be involved in identification of the locations and discussion with local communities.
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By Tesfa-Alem Tekle
June 13, 2016 (ADDIS ABABA) – Ethiopian and Eritrean forces on Sunday engaged in fresh fighting along their heavily militarised common border, officials in Asmara said.
According to multiple reports, the two rival forces fought in Tserona front, an area situated about 75 kilometers south of the Eritrean capital, Asmara.
An Eritrean opposition website said the clashes took place shortly after midnight on Sunday morning and each side appears to be calling up reinforcement.
Asmara released a short statement accusing neighbouring Ethiopia of launching the attack.
However, the Ethiopian information and communications minister, Getachew Reda couldn't confirm the border clashes, saying he had no knowledge about the report.
Ethiopian forces “has today, Sunday 12 June 2016, unleashed an attack against Eritrea on the Tsorona Central Front” the Eritrean ministry of information said in a statement.
The statement added that the purpose and ramifications of this attack are not clear.
“The Government of Eritrea will issue further statements on the unfolding situation” the short statement concluded.
The latest fighting comes, as Ethiopia in recent months warned Eritrea that it would take a proportional action unless the red Sea nation refrains from continued provocations.
In February, a group of Eritrean armed men cross borders in to Ethiopia and carried out mass kidnappings from a Tigray region in North Ethiopia bordering Eritrea.
However Eritrea freed the abductees after Ethiopia warned it would take military action to recue its citizens.
Last moth, Ethiopia said it has foiled what it described was a plot by Eritrean mercenaries to carryout a terror attack in the country.
Ethiopia has previously carried out military actions against targets inside Eritrea to what Addis Ababa says is a proportional measures to Eritrea's continued aggression.
In 1998, the two neighbors fought a two-year long war over their disputed border which has claimed the lives of at least 70,000.
The row over their border remains unresolved and forces of both sides regularly engage in lower-scale skirmishes.
It is not yet clear on to what has triggered Sunday's clashes but Ethiopia has routinely accused Eritrea of orchestrating a number of cross-border attacks using Ethiopian rebels it harbors, an accusation Asmara denies.
Abraham Belay, a political analyst based in Addis Ababa told Sudan Tribune that the quick statement issued by Eritrea is “nothing more than the usual systematic ways” of the country to divert the people's attention.
“It is meant to deflect the public's attention from the recent UN human rights commission report,” he said.
The United Nations Commission of Inquiry on Human Rights in Eritrea on Wednesday disclosed that the commission found crimes that were committed against humanity.
Mike Smith, the chairman of the commission said crimes of enslavement, imprisonment, enforced disappearance, torture, persecutions, sexual and gender based violence, discrimination on the basis of religion and ethnicity and other inhuman crimes were documented.
The latest report said it has found no improvement in the rule of law further citing to the absence of a constitution, an independent judiciary or democratic institutions in Eritrea.
The commission said it has recommended to the UN Security Council to refer the situation in Eritrea to the prosecutor of the Hague-based International Criminal Court.
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June 13, 2016 (KAMPALA) – Fighting erupted on Sunday evening in Uganda's Gulu district near the border with South Sudan, Ugandan media outlets have reported.
The first clashes in the Gulu district area, predominantly inhabited by the Acholi tribe in Uganda, occurred after media reports that a number of army officers have been allegedly arrested in Kampala over an alleged plan to stage military coup against President Yoweri Museveni.
“It is true, Gulu Police barracks was attacked today [Sunday],” Uganda media quoted police spokesperson, Fred Enanga.
“The attackers were repulsed in a fight that lasted about 39 minutes – from around 9:00 pm to 9:30 pm,” he added.
Enanga could not however name the fighters who stormed the police state for security reasons, saying this would be “jeopardizing investigations.”
Shops were closed as the fierce gun battle rocked the town, forcing many to scamper for safety. The police station was reported raided before army reinforcement came in to flash out the gunmen.
The incident also comes against the backdrop of reports that a new rebel movement has begun to operate in the area against President Museveni's government.
Last year, unidentified group of armed men attacked Mubende Police Station to loot the armoury but were repulsed after the army came in and joined the battle.
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June 13, 2016 (JUBA) – A senior army general in the opposition faction of the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA-IO) under the leadership of the First Vice President, Riek Machar, said they have not been officially informed to open the river Nile route.
The presidency of South Sudan and the council of ministers have resolved on a number of security issues, but which have not yet been communicated officially to the implementers on the ground.
In the last week's Friday council of ministers meeting, information minister, Michael Makuei Lueth, said the SPLM-IO leadership would direct their Sector One commander in Upper Nile state, General Johnson Olony, to allow the river route to open between Renk and Malakal which the opposition controls.
However, the top commander of the SPLA-IO in the Joint Military Ceasefire Committee (JMCC), General James Koang Chuol, said their organization has not been informed to communicate the matter.
JMCC is a body established under the August 2015 peace agreement to monitor the implementation of the security arrangements in the country.
“We have not been informed officially that there is food that is going to be brought from Renk to Juba. If we were informed the joint military committee would do that. But no one had informed the military committee officially,” General Chuol told the media.
He said they have not been informed about the items which the government wanted to ferry along the River Nile.
The river route connecting Renk and Malakal has been blocked since last year by the opposition forces of the SPLA-IO.
General Chuol also earlier said they have not been informed officially in writing to identify the cantonment areas for opposition forces in Greater Equatoria and Greater Bahr el Ghazal regions, despite agreement in the presidency to establish the cantonment areas.
No cantonment areas have yet been established in the country.
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June 13, 2016 (KHARTOUM) - Sudanese parliament on Monday has ratified a 60 million K.D (about $200 million) loan agreement from Kuwait to finance irrigation projects of Roseires dam in the Blue Nile state following an intense debate on whether or not the loan complies with the Sharia law.
Sudan's foreign relations have witnessed a remarkable shift since last fall particularly in its rapprochement with the Arab Gulf states following years of chilly ties.
Several legislators refused to approve the loan unless a legal opinion from the Sudan Religious Scholar Council (SRSC) underscoring that the loan doesn't include usurious interest was obtained.
However, other MPs stressed the need to approve the loan due to the difficult economic conditions experienced by the country.
Meanwhile, a joint report by the parliamentary subcommittee on legislation, justice and human rights and the subcommittee of finance and economic planning and the subcommittee on agriculture, animal resources and forests has revealed that the loan would be repaid within 19 years with an annual premium of 1,5 million K.D.
MP Mubarak al-Nur said the loan must not be approved unless a legal opinion was received from the SRSC and the Islamic Fiqh Academy (IFA) showing that the loan doesn't include an interest rate.
However, MP Abdel-Rahim Issa said the country is in dire need of the loan particularly under the current economic circumstances.
For his part, MP Mohamed al-Hassan al-Amin pointed to the existence of an independent committee that looks into the compatibility of the loans with the Sharia law, saying the committee belongs to the presidency and includes several religious scholars.
He pointed the committee approved a number of loans in the past and rejected some others.
The head of the subcommittee on agriculture, animal resources and forests Abdallah Masar, for his part, underscored the importance of the loan saying it would help expand the cultivated area.
He added that the loan would change life in the Blue Nile completely and will increase power production and end the conflict in the area.
Sudan's economy was hit hard since the southern part of the country declared independence in July 2011, taking with it about 75% of the country's oil output.
The East African nation also suffers from a two-decade economic embargo imposed upon it by the United States in response to its alleged connection to terror networks and human rights abuses.
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June 13, 2016 (KHARTOUM) - Leaders of the Sudan Call forces have issued conflicting statements regarding a proposed meeting of the alliance to decide whether or not to meet the chief African mediator Thabo Mbeki to discuss the Roadmap Agreement for peace and dialogue in Sudan.
Last March, the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) and the Sudanese government signed a framework agreement calling to stop war in Blue Nile, Darfur, and South Kordofan and to engage in the national dialogue process.
However, the opposition groups, Justice and Equality Movement ((JEM), NUP, Sudan People's Liberation Movement -North (SPLM-N), and Sudan Liberation Movement-Minni Minnawi (SLM-MM) refused the roadmap saying it acknowledges a government controlled dialogue conference and would lead to reproduce the regime.
Following a meeting held last week to discuss the opposition refusal of the Roadmap Agreement, NUP leader Sadiq al-Mahdi said he agreed with Mbeki to hold a meeting with the Sudan Call forces to discuss the matter.
The NUP leader pointed that he proposed that the Sudan Call forces participating in the dialogue should send an official letter demanding a meeting with Mbeki to reach an agreement on those issues, saying the latter accepted his suggestion.
In a letter extended to Sudan Tribune Monday, al-Mahdi directed veiled criticism at some parties of the alliance, saying their actions indicate that the Sudan Call is not a coherent entity that seeks to establish a new regime through dialogue or popular uprising as stated in its founding statement.
He pointed to the importance for holding the proposed meeting in Addis Ababa, saying the meeting would basically discuss the completion of the alliance's structures besides exchanging views on the letter that should be sent to Mbeki as soon as possible.
Al-Mahdi warned that the postponement or cancellation of the Sudan Call meeting “would represent a precious gift for the regime and a terrible loss for the legitimate demands of our people”, saying the alliance must keep pace with the rapid developments and use it to advance the national agenda instead of allowing it to serve the interests of the tyrants.
“The dialogue [conference] is criticizing the regime and some founding leaders of the regime are abandoning it and the internal atmosphere is calling for a new regime and the recommendations of the internal dialogue are echoing the views of the opposition,” he said
He said this atmosphere requires the Sudan Call forces to show unity and prove they are serious about establishing a new regime through dialogue or peaceful popular uprising.
“However, actions of some Sudan Call parties implies the opposite of these expected stances … this would frustrate the hopes of the Sudanese people,” he added.
Al-Mahdi further called for increasing the isolation of the regime by backing the African mediation, saying the Sudan Call should express support the positive items of the Roadmap and seek to address its shortcomings on the same basis that he mentioned in his letter to Mbeki.
He said the refusal of some Sudan Call parties to discuss the Roadmap would cast doubts on the opposition seriousness and weaken the position of its international allies while strengthening the stance of the regime's backers and would eventually push Mbeki to criticize the opposition in his report to the African peace body.
For his part, the leader of JEM Gibril Ibrahim told radio Afia Darfur that the United States Special Envoy to Sudan and South Sudan, Donald Booth, has extended the invitation to the Sudan Call forces to discuss the Roadmap next Thursday in Addis Ababa.
He added that the rest of the Sudan Call forces and Thabo Mbeki would participate in the talks at a later stage.
Last week, the alliance of the National Consensus Forces (NCF) has distanced itself from any discussions about the roadmap, saying the ongoing talks with Mbeki do not mean anything for it.
The NCF is a member of the Sudan Call coalition but says the regime is not credible and points that the popular uprising is the best way to achieve regime change.
Mbeki form his side, deals in his peace initiative with the forces that signed an agreement with his panel on the national dialogue on 5 September 2014 including the JEM, NUP, SLM-MM and the SPLM-N.
The leading figure at SLM-MM Bishara Manago said the four opposition forces who received the invitation from the American envoy would ask for amending the roadmap and holding a preparatory dialogue meeting abroad.
However, SLM-MM leader Minni Minnawi , in a post at his Facebook page stressed that the proposed Sudan Call meeting has been delayed, saying another meeting with the international envoys under the title “signing the roadmap that has lost its road” would be held instead.
He expected that the meeting with the international envoys would force the opposition forces to join the internal dialogue, pointing to the conflicting goals of the envoys, Mbeki and those who seek to introduce real changes to the roadmap.
In the same context, SPLM-N peace file spokesperson Mubarak Ardol expressed commitment to attend the Sudan Call meeting and to ensure its success, accusing several quarters including the Sudanese government of obfuscating on the meeting.
In a statement extended to Sudan Tribune Monday, Ardol denied existence of any arrangements to meet with the AUHIP or Mbeki or to sign the roadmap, saying the Sudan Call meeting would discuss the latest internal and external developments in order arrive at decisions that promote change and just peace.
June 13, 2016 (JUBA) – A local security guard working at the United States Embassy was shot and killed by unknown gunmen in the South Sudan capital, Juba on Saturday.
The U.S. envoy in Juba, Molly Phee said the deceased was a person who loved his nation.
“The work of the U.S. Embassy and USAID [US Agency for International Development] is made possible each day by the outstanding efforts of 320 South Sudanese members of our team,” said Phee in a statement extended to Sudan Tribune on Monday.
“They [local staff] love their country and support the U.S. government and the American people as we endeavour to promote peace and development in South Sudan. Today, as we mourn the loss of our dear colleague, we are reminded that too many South Sudanese have lost loved ones due to the recent conflict. We will redouble our efforts to help South Sudan overcome its current challenges,” it added.
The deceased, relatives said, worked as a guard at the American embassy for 10 years.
The statement, which did not name the deceased, said the “Local Guard Force was shot last night around 1:45 am while he was on duty protecting an embassy off-site facility.”
“He was immediately taken to Juba Teaching Hospital, where he succumbed to his wounds after unsuccessful emergency treatment,” further added the statement.
This is the first time a diplomatic mission worker has been killed while at a work station.
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June 13, 2016 (JUBA) - A High Court in South Sudan's national capital, Juba, has sentenced to life imprisonment 16 officials for playing a role in the stealing of more than 14 million US dollars from the office of President Salva Kiir.
The High Court judge, Ladu Armenio, delivered the sentences on Monday afternoon. However, the defence lawyers have vowed to appeal the ruling.
John Agou Wuoi, Anyieth Chaat Paul, Yel Luol, Chaat Paul, Mayen Wol, Diing Ajieng, Nhumot Agot, Ana Kalisto, Kur Ayuen, Garang Aguer, Francis Yata, Anyang Majok Ayuen, Anthony Madimo, Anthony Dia, Raphini Jadada and Lisiuma are among the sentenced officials found to have stolen the money in a coordinated process.
President Kiir in June 2015 issued administrative orders suspending the executive director in his office, Mayen Wol and Yel Luol, chief administrator, who were until Monday sentenced to spend the rest of their lives behind bars.
This follows a month after national security officer attached to the Office of the President, John Agou, was arrested over the fraud. The men were accused and suspended on charges related to forging signature of President Kiir. This led to the loss of over $14 million in the name of the president.
The officials were allegedly using the signature of the president to steal 30 million South Sudanese pounds, with the help of 14 officials from the Central Bank and ministry of finance.
“The accused have been accused for abusing their power and misusing their positions and violated financial rules and regulations,” said Deng Achuil, senior legal counsel at the high court.
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U.S. Pres. Barack Obama chairs the Security Council Summit on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. Credit: Bomoon Lee/IPS
By Thalif Deen
UNITED NATIONS, Jun 13 2016 (IPS)
The world’s nuclear arsenal continues to decline – from 15,850 warheads in early 2015 to 15,395 in 2016, according to the latest figures released Monday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
Still, the more distressing news is that none of the nine nuclear weapon-possessing states – the US, UK, Russia, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea – are prepared to give up their existing weapons now, or in the foreseeable future.
The decrease in the overall number is due mainly to Russia and the US – which together still account for more than 93 per cent of all nuclear weapons – further reducing their inventories of strategic nuclear weapons.
However, despite the implementation of the bilateral Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) since 2011, the pace of their reductions remains slow, said SIPRI.
The equally bad news, however, is the continued modernization of nuclear weapons both by the US and Russia.
Although details of the Russian program are not public, the US plans to spend $348 billion during 2015–24 on maintaining and comprehensively updating its nuclear forces.
Some estimates suggest that the US nuclear weapon modernization program may cost up to $1 trillion over the next 30 years, according to SIPRI.
Alice Slater, an Advisor to the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation and who serves on the Coordinating Committee of Abolition 2000, told IPS the US has committed to spending $348 billion over the next ten years on two new bomb factories, new warheads and upgraded delivery systems by planes, submarine and land-based missile, estimating a budget of one trillion dollars over the next 30 years.
Last summer, the US tested a dummy warhead in Nevada for an earth-penetrating nuclear bunker buster, she pointed out.
Despite President Barack Obama’s qualified April 2009 Prague speech urging a world free of nuclear weapons – for which he received a Nobel Peace Prize, even after having noted that his dream of a world free of nuclear weapons “may not happen in my lifetime”- he has made the smallest reductions in the US nuclear arsenal compared to any previous US President, said Slater.
And Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee for US President at the November elections, famously misquoted Obama’s Prague speech when she was Secretary of State, saying Obama had said a nuclear weapons free world may not happen for “several lifetimes,” she added.
Last month UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon reiterated his call for a world without nuclear weapons.
“Disarmament is part of the DNA of the United Nations, which was formed when the first and last use of nuclear weapons in war was fresh in people’s minds.”
Since then, he pointed out, all countries have rejected the use of nuclear weapons.
“But until these weapons are completely eliminated, they continue to pose a threat to our common well-being. Fears of nuclear terrorism make disarmament even more urgent and important,” he added.
Hans Kristensen, co-author of the SIPRI Yearbook said the ambitious US modernization plan presented by the Obama Administration is in stark contrast to President Barack Obama’s pledge to reduce the number of nuclear weapons and the role they play in US national security strategy.
The other nuclear weapon-possessing states have much smaller arsenals, but have all either begun to deploy new nuclear weapon delivery systems or announced their intention to do so, he added.
China appears to be gradually increasing its nuclear forces as it modernizes the arsenal. India and Pakistan are both expanding their nuclear weapon stockpiles and missile delivery capabilities.
North Korea is estimated to have enough fissile material for approximately 10 nuclear warheads. However, it is unclear whether North Korea has produced or deployed operational weapons, said Kristensen.
“Despite the ongoing reduction in the number of weapons, the prospects for genuine progress towards nuclear disarmament remain gloomy,” said Shannon Kile, Head of the SIPRI Nuclear Weapons Project.
“All the nuclear weapon-possessing states continue to prioritize nuclear deterrence as the cornerstone of their national security strategies,” he added.
Apart from counting bombs in the respective nuclear arsenals, Slater told IPS, “we must factor in the aggressive and provocative expansion of NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) up to the Russian border as a block to nuclear disarmament, despite promises given to (former Soviet leader Mikhail) Gorbachev when the Berlin Wall came down that NATO would not expand beyond East Germany as well as the US having planted new missile bases in Turkey, Romania and Poland after President Bush walked out of 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.
It is significant that part of the deal US President John F. Kennedy made with Soviet President Nikita Khrushchev when the Soviet Union took their missiles out of Cuba was that the US would remove its missiles from Turkey.
“Despite the ongoing reduction in the number of weapons, the prospects for genuine progress towards nuclear disarmament remain gloomy." -- Shannon Kile“Well they are back in Turkey. The US also plans to modernize the nuclear weapons it bases in five NATO countries, Germany, Holland, Belgium, Turkey, and Italy. And the US Asia “pivot” with expanded bases in Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines is an enormous obstacle to enroll the Asian nuclear powers in endorsing nuclear disarmament,” declared Slater.
She argued that US plans to dominate and control the military use of space also block further possibilities for nuclear disarmament.
Gorbachev and (US President Ronald) Reagan spoke about abolishing nuclear weapons, but Gorbachev pulled his offer off the table when Reagan wouldn’t promise to forego Star Wars.
Then Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin offered a deal to (US President Bill) Clinton “to cut our massive arsenals to 1,000 nuclear weapons each, at which point we could invite all the other nuclear weapons states to the table to negotiate for their elimination, but only if Clinton would forego the development of missile bases in Eastern Europe.
Slater said Clinton refused, and subsequently Bush unilaterally withdrew from the ABM Treaty in 2002. Russia and China have actually been proposing, since 2008, a draft treaty to ban weapons in space which the US vigorously opposes by blocking consensus to even discuss it in the Committee on Disarmament in Geneva.
Finally, the nuclear weapons states have boycotted the 2016 Geneva meetings of the Open Ended Working Group for Nuclear Disarmament, established by the UN General Assembly, which have been discussing the legal gap in the law that fails to prohibit and ban nuclear weapons as we have done for biological and chemical weapons.
The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) merely promises “good faith efforts” for nuclear disarmament and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) left a gap in its 1996 decision on the legality of nuclear weapons when it said it couldn’t decide if nuclear weapons were illegal in the case where the very survival of a state was at stake.
“It appears that the non-nuclear weapons states may be prepared this year to start negotiations on a ban treaty without the rogue nuclear weapons states and some of the hypocritical “weasel” states who profess to want nuclear abolition but rely on the US nuclear umbrella for their “security”.”
These include NATO states and Japan, incredible as that may seem, as well as Australia and South Korea. Hopefully, a treaty to ban the bomb signed by the 127 countries that are supporting the effort at this time, may break up this discouraging logjam for meaningful progress on nuclear disarmament as reported in the recent SIPR Annual count of the world’s nuclear arsenals, Slater noted.
The writer can be contacted at thalifdeen@aol.com
A Rainbow flag is displayed in the window of the United States Mission to the United Nations during LGBT Pride Month. Credit: Phillip Kaeding / IPS.
By Tharanga Yakupitiyage
UNITED NATIONS, Jun 13 2016 (IPS)
Though the High Level Meeting on Ending AIDS ended with the adoption of bold and life saving targets, many organisations have expressed their disappointment in its outcomes.
During the meeting, the international community adopted a new Political Declaration that lays down the groundwork to accelerate HIV prevention and treatment and end AIDS by 2030.
UN member states committed to achieving a 90-90-90 treatment target where 90 percent of people living with HIV know their status, 90 percent who know their HIV status are accessing treatment and 90 percent of people on treatment have suppressed viral loads. Reaching the treatment target will prevent 75 percent of new infections and ensure that 30 million people living with HIV (PLHIV) have access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) by 2020.
Though many organisations that IPS spoke to were encouraged by the commitments, they also expressed concern and disappointment in the Declaration’s shortfalls.
“I think what the high level meeting showed us was the gap between reality and politics at the UN,” said International Women’s Health Coalition’s (IWHC) Director of Advocacy & Policy, Shannon Kowalski.
“The Political Declaration didn’t go far enough to address the epidemic that we face today,” she continued.
“If we are serious about ending AIDS, we need to go far beyond what is in the Political Declaration." -- Shannon KowalskiMany were particularly concerned with stripped and exclusionary language on so-called key populations in the document.
“When we saw in the Declaration that key populations were less mentioned than 5 years ago…it is a real setback,” Alix Zuinghedau from Coalition Plus, a French international union for HIV/AIDS organisations, told IPS.
Among these key populations is the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) community. Though the LGBT population continues to be disproportionately affected by HIV/AIDS, they are only mentioned once in the Declaration.
Executive Director of Stop TB Partnership Lucica Ditiu told IPS that the document mentions vulnerable populations in relation to tuberculosis (TB), but that it should have been extended throughout the Declaration.
“We have a saying in my country: With one eye I laugh, with one eye I cry. Because that piece was missing,” she said.
The Declaration includes a target to reduce TB-related deaths among people living with HIV by 75 percent by 2020.
Amirah Sequeira, Associate Director of Health Global Access Project’s (GAP) International Campaigns and Communications, also noted the lack of language and commitment to decriminalize key populations including men who have sex with men, people who inject drugs and sex workers.
“The exclusion of commitments to decriminalize these populations will hold back the ability for the world to reach the bold new targets that the Declaration committed to,” she told IPS.
When asked about these concerns, the Deputy Executive Director of the Joint UN Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), one of the main organisers of the meeting, Luiz Lorres told IPS that this exclusion will impede efforts to achieve the 90-90-90 treatment target.
“I acknowledge that more needs to be done,” he said.
Organisations have also pointed to issues around financing.
Through the Declaration, governments have committed to increasing funds for HIV response to $26 billion per year by 2020, as estimated by UNAIDS. However, Sequeira noted that not only is there a $6 billion funding gap, but also donors tend to flat line or reduce funding despite pledges.
“[Reaching the goal] will not be possible if donors continue to do what unfortunately they have been doing which is flat lining or pulling back funding from global AIDS programs,” she told IPS.
Though she applauded the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief’s (PEPFAR) newly launched $100 million Key Populations Investment Fund, Sequeira stated that PEPFAR needs a $500 million increase each year between now and 2020 in order for the U.S. to provide its fair share of needed financing.
Zuinghedau told IPS that without additional funding to scale up programs for key populations, the goal to reduce infections and end AIDS will not be possible.
“It is very frustrating to see countries say, yes we want to end AIDS but we’re not going to add any more funding. It’s a contradiction,” she told IPS.
The government of Canada recently announced a pledge of almost US$615 million to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria for the next three years, a 20 percent increase from its previous pledge.
Kowalski applauded the move, stating: “If Canada can do it, we know that other governments can do it as well.”
Though the Declaration highlights the need to increase domestic resources for countries’ own HIV response, Ditiu stressed the need to ensure that governments continue to invest in vulnerable groups because they are often the first ones to “fall between the cracks.”
She added that it is important to include key populations in the implementation of commitments.
Sequeira also urged for the implementation of strong accountability mechanisms to ensure that commitments are translated into effective responses.
Though the Political Declaration is not “perfect,” Kowalski noted that it provides the bare minimum required to take HIV response to the next level.
“If we are serious about ending AIDS, we need to go far beyond what is in the Political Declaration,” she said.