Africa

By Duop Chak Wuol

The recently signed Khartoum's power-sharing deal between the incumbent Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU), the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-In Opposition (SPLM-IO), South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA), Former Detainees (FDs), and Other Political Parties (OPP) has flaws that need methodical scrutiny. This seemingly Juba's predetermined pact will not bring about changes demanded by the people of South Sudan. The agreement shows that the SPLM-IO abandons its ambitious reform agenda which it has been fighting for more than four years. This is a serious political blunder and pure embracement for the tyrannical system which the armed opposition countlessly vows to reform. This is an attempt to show that the SPLM-IO's overall peace strategy is seriously flawed; perhaps it is on life-support if it is not dead.

There are many political mistakes that the supposedly reformist SPLM-IO party has committed. These mistakes include expansion of the government, the issue of 32 states, transitional security arrangements, failure to address the root causes of the civil war, among others. But the most important strategic blunder made by the SPLM-IO is probably the legislative one. Since early 2014, the armed opposition has consistently claimed that its main goal is to change the political system in the country. The people of South Sudan embrace the idea because they know the only way to reform the current oppressive system is by having a truly an independent legislative body to pass laws that reflect South Sudanese wishes. But the recent pact clearly failed the people. It is baffling to see the leadership of the SPLM-IO abandoning demands of the people by accepting a deal which embraces Salva Kiir's ruthlessness. If this peace ends the conflict, it will be good for the country. But the irony is that it will still maintain Kiir's tyranny because the SPLM-IO parliamentarians will have no means to limit his grip on power. In any nation, reforms are done through legislative means, not by wild assumptions. It would be a mistake to think that Kiir will support the armed opposition reform agenda in the parliament. The man still fantasizes about his one-man rule. He likes ruling the country through presidential decrees. So, the notion that reforms will be done after the SPLM-IO rejoined the government is a pure fantasy.

Statistically, Kiir has the number to deny any reform agenda he does not like or want. He can do it by instructing his parliamentarians not to vote for any bill that would limit his powers. The signed document, for example, proposes that the Transitional National Legislative Assembly (TNLA) will have 550 Members of Parliament (MPs). The revitalized text gave the incumbent TGoNU 332 MPs (60.4%), whereas 23.3% (128 MPs) will represent the SPLM-IO, 50 MPs (9.1%) allocated to SSOA, 5.5% (30 MPs to OPP, and 10 MPs (1.8%) are awarded to FDs. In the war of numbers, it is 60.4% vs. 39.6%. Meaning, the government MPs clearly outnumbered all opposition MPs combined. It is strikingly a solemn misjudgment on the SPLM-IO's part. It is worth noting that the government does not have a two-thirds majority in the TNLA — which would have been 366.7 MPs (66.7% to 33.3%) out of the proposed 550 MPs. This calculation has a +1 margin of error. In a logical sense, Kiir parliamentary bloc needs an additional 34.7 MPs to pass any law it wants. Remember, South Sudan is full of briefcase political parties. Most of these parties are not fighting for the people of South Sudan, they are fighting for themselves. For them, it is a war over positions and Kiir could still bribe 34.7 MPs from these self-serving parties to pass any law he wants. These are Mathematical truths. The SPLM-IO can create its own excuses, but I am certain that any opposing view, denying these facts would be indisputably counterintuitive.

The SPLM-IO's central argument is that it signed the deal because it wants South Sudanese refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) to have a sense of peace and possibly return to their homes, let alone its reform agenda. This is indisputably a good humanitarian gesture. However, signing an agreement simply because you want IDPs and refugees currently under the protection of the United Nations (UN) peacekeepers to come out and go back to their houses is not a plausible idea. The SPLM-IO cannot force civilians it cannot possibly protect to go back to their homes where they will be vulnerable to Juba's brutality. It would be better for the SPLM-IO to just sign any pact it desires and not allow any provision in any deal that would then force refugees and IDPs to leave UN-run camps for their homes where insecurity is widespread. Calling for innocent civilians to leave their secured places for their homes which are under the control of Juba's oppressive regime reminds me of Salva Kiir who always wants to grand an amnesty to anyone who opposes his regime so that he can prolong his tyranny without a formidable opposition. I suggest the leadership of the SPLM-IO thinks deeply about this issue.

Why would the SPLM-IO sign a peace which embraces Kiir's ruthlessness, forget the victims of the SPLM self-made war, and ignore people demands for change? Did the armed opposition forget what it has been fighting for the last four-and-a-half years? What really happens to SPLM-IO's reform agenda? Is the armed opposition reform agenda dead?

There is no doubt in my mind that the legislative branch will pose a daunting challenge to the SPLM-IO and other opposition parties. However, this challenge could be minimized or even frustrated if all opposition MPs work together as a united bloc in the parliament. If this happens, then the incumbent government could be forced to collaborate or make deals with opposition MPs which would then allow the SPLM-IO and other political parties to enact some laws. Leaving this obvious political risk aside, I honestly believe that political and economic reforms under this deal will not be feasible given the fact that Kiir still cherishes the idea of appointing and removing people through his dictatorial decrees.

As I have already indicated, the agreement has many pro-Kiir provisions. But ending the suffering of South Sudanese who are now living under dire conditions in refugee camps and foreign countries is the number one priority. If the incumbent TGoNU and the SPLM-IO are serious about peace and fully implement it, then they will be thanked by the people of South Sudan for ending the war. However, the fact that the armed opposition lacks the necessary number of MPs to reform the political system in the country is even worse. It would be a wishful thinking for the SPLM-IO to assume that its transformation agenda will be magically done when it knows the number of its MPs is not enough to execute its policies through parliamentary processes. The Khartoum's power-sharing deal will not bring the much-needed political reforms in the country. This agreement is merely a classic case of a new political marriage between the government and SPLM-IO. This pact is also a reminder for the people of South Sudan that reforms championed by the armed opposition could be a thing of the past. It is clear, however, that all factions of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) seem to be interested in reuniting themselves under the same old dictatorial umbrella. It is good to remind people that Kiir and Machar have already agreed to cantonments of their troops and deployment of the East African and African Union forces to enforce the cessation of hostilities. However, this is not new since the two leaders had previously signed many agreements before and violated them. One of these violations occurred in July 2016, when Kiir colluded with the current First Vice President Taban Deng to hijack the August 2015 compromise deal.

Kiir is not for a lasting peace in the country. His main concern is not to end the war, rather it is to sign any peace that maintains his ruthlessness, lures leaders of the SPLM-IO to Juba in a pretext of the pact and refuses to implement the agreement. Kiir demonstrated his unwillingness to implement the deal on August 8 at Bilpham military headquarters when he told his troops that they should be prepared to receive and integrate the armed opposition soldiers. This is not what the security arrangements stipulate. The security pact specifies that both incumbent government and rebel forces shall be screened and classified based on established military standards and those who pass such a screening will be combined and given proper training during the Pre-transitional period. This provision was included in the proposal to make sure South Sudan has a professional army after the three transitional periods. Kiir is the one who does not want peace to return to the country. He violated many pacts by refusing to release the armed opposition officials he kidnapped as well as Prisoners of Wars (POWs) even though this demand was clearly stipulated in the previous ceasefire agreements. The people of South Sudan are not interested in this elitist agreement. As you can see, Kiir is trying to deceive people before the deal is even finalized — this is how he operates. The man is a cunning oppressor who cannot be trusted when it comes to peace. The armed opposition should not succumb to this dubious accord — an accord which irrefutably castoffs reforms demanded by the people.

Having a defined and well-developed political doctrine is essential for any political party to succeed. The SPLM-IO is theoretically an opposition party. It will, supposedly, if all things go as planned, have its own political and economic agendas that it would want to be passed by the parliament. The armed opposition knows its success in the TNLA may not be feasible given the fact that it lacks numbers to wage a successful legislative fight. Politics is all about strategies, numbers, games, back-stabbing, making closed-door deals, and selling your policies to the people. If the SPLM-IO wants its reform agenda to survive, it must have specific policies in place and these policies must be staunchly championed and defended by the leadership of the SPLM-IO as well as its proposed parliamentarians. If the armed opposition deserts its reform agenda, then it will be a new chapter for Kiir's cruelty to continue and the death for a democratic hope for the country — it would be a chapter that the people of South Sudan would not like to see happening. The SPLM-IO must not allow its democratic vision to die; it must continue to use all necessary means to make sure that those who lost their lives in the war did not die in vain. The leadership of the SPLM-IO must rethink its peace strategy or it risks being an extension of Salva Kiir's tyrannical regime.

The author can be reached at duop282@gmail.com.

August 10, 2018 (KHARTOUM) - A joint force from the army, police and security services have arrested a number of outlaws and captured large amounts of weapons and unregulated motorcycles in South Darfur State.

Commander of the Sudanese army's 16th Infantry Division Khalaf Allah Abdallah Idris said the move comes within the framework of the ongoing disarmament campaign to maintain security and stability in South Darfur

He expressed determination to eliminate all forms of negative phenomena in the community including the proliferation of illegal weapons and impose the authority of the state.

In August 2017, the Sudanese government launched a six-month disarmament campaign to eliminate illegal weapons in the conflict-affected areas in Sudan, particularly the Darfur region.

The Sudanese authorities say the spread of weapons among the rival tribes in the region is one of the main causes of Darfur's instability.

The Sudanese army has been fighting armed groups in Darfur since 2003. UN agencies estimate that over 300,000 people were killed in the conflict, and over 2.5 million were displaced.

(ST)

August 10, 2018 (JUBA) - The United Nations Security Council Friday said alarmed by the level of food insecurity in South Sudan and called to allow unfettered humanitarian access to the needy in the troubled country.

The Council was briefed on the humanitarian and security situations in South Sudan by UN Undersecretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock, UN secretary-general's special envoy for Sudan and South Sudan Nicholas Haysom, and head of the UN mission in South Sudan David Shearer.

Following the meeting British Ambassador Karen Pierce who is also the chair of the Council for August briefed the media on the meeting and pointed that it took place within the context of the resolution 2417 (2018) which demands the Secretary-General to report to the Security Council on the risk of starvation of civilians as a method of warfare and the unlawful denial of humanitarian access to civilian populations in the armed conflicts.

"The members of the Security Council expressed grave concern about the level of food insecurity in South Sudan, they stressed the ongoing conflict is one of the main and direct causes of the food insecurity crisis in that country," Pierce said.

She reiterated the Council demand to the warring parties to allow "safe and timely and unhindered humanitarian access to the civilians in the conflict zones.

The Troika countries in a statement on Friday took note of the reduced clashes in the country but demanded further significant reduction in violence, and all parties taking measures to allow full humanitarian access.

UN reports estimate that more than seven million people face life-threatening hunger if the security situation continues to deteriorate.

The British diplomat said the Council stick to the ceasefire agreements and to demonstrate their commitment to fully implement and finalize a more inclusive revitalized peace agreement.

Also, the 15-member body welcomed the recent regional efforts to expedite the peace process and to end the conflict and stressed its support to the IGAD role.

The Troika and the Security Council statements come as the IGAD decided to give the parties until the 19 of August before to end the talks on the implementation matrix and some issues related to the governance deal.

(ST)

August 10, 2018 (KHARTOUM) - The Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North led by Abdel Aziz al-Hilu said four of its officers have deserted the group and dismissed any link between the fugitives and the death of another one it said he committed suicide.

SPLM-N Hilu Secretary areas under government control Amar Amon Daldoum admitted in a statement extended to Sudan Tribune on Friday that four officers including Brigadier - Ismail Ahmed Abdallah, Major - Ahmed Abbas Bakheet, Captain - Abdel Rahman Daldom Chalo have fled from the rebel-controlled areas in South Kordofan to the" areas under government control".

"The leadership ordered them to report to the headquarters to find out why they left their jobs and stayed in their homes for a long time," said Daldoum adding they decided to escape the rebel areas after being asked several times.

The defection of the four rebels comes as heated debated are taking place in the social media among the group supporters about the "targeting" of SPLM-N militants from the western area of the Nuba Mountains.

Al-Hilu's detractors further accuse him of killing a rebel commander Abboud Karib Ismail who committed suicide while was in jail recently. They say how he can suicide by his arm while he was confined in prison.

But the secretary general praised the "outstanding achievements" of Colonel Karib and asserted that he was in custody pending investigation when he used his weapon to commit suicide.

In October 2017, al-Hilu was elected as the chairman of the group after a six-month rift within the SPLM-N. As a result, now there are two factions one led by Abdel Aziz al-Hilu and another led by Malik Agar.

Al-Hilu who controls the Nuba Mountains and parts of the rebel areas in the Blue Nile state rejects to acknowledge the other faction.

He recently operated a series of administrative reforms in the group in order to put an end to the "era non-institutionalization and lawlessness".

(ST)

August 10, 2018 (KHARTOUM)- Sudan's Ministry of Minerals acknowledged the government purchased only10 per cent of the actual amount of gold produced in the first half of 2018.

Gold bullion blocks, brought by local gold workers for examination, are pictured at a gold laboratory counter in the gold market in Khartoum July 15, 2012 (Reuters)

In a press release issued on Wednesday, the Ministry of Minerals said gold production in the first half of this year amounted to 63,3 tons, saying the Central Bank of Sudan (CBoS) purchased only 10 per cent of the total production.

According to the press release, the government revenues from the gold exports reached $422,5 million, saying the difference between actual gold production and government exports reached 48,8 tons.

However, the Ministry of Minerals didn't elaborate on whether the 48,8 tons have been smuggled or being hidden by traditional miners and mining companies from government reach.

Gold production is now Sudan's main source of hard currency after the secession of South Sudan where are the two third of its oil reserves before 2011.

However, restrictions on hard currency by the CBoS represent a big challenge impeding the development of the mining industry but also encourage traditional miners to smuggle their production to neighbouring countries.

Sudan currently ranks third in gold production behind South Africa and Ghana. Officials said they hope to increase gold production to more than 140 tons and make Sudan the first gold producer in Africa in 2018.

(ST)

August 10, 2018 (KHARTOUM) - Sudan's inflation rate has risen to 63,94% in July compared to 63, in June, reported the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBoS).

Fruit-seller in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum (Reuters)

In its monthly bulletin issued on Thursday, the CBoS attributed the rise in inflation rate to the continued increase in the price of food and beverages group.

Economic conditions in Sudan have been challenging since the secession of South Sudan in 2011 and the loss of the bulk of oil production and exports.

The withdrawal of South Sudan oil has compounded the difficult external environment, including debt arrears, limited access to external financing, U.S. sanctions, and the withdrawal of correspondent bank relations.

It is noteworthy that the director of the Troubled Currencies Programme at Johns Hopkins University Steve Hanke said Sudan's annual inflation rate measured for 6/13/18, was 111%.

The government seeks to achieve an average inflation rate of 19,5% by the end of the 2018 fiscal year compared to 34,1% in 2017.

The high inflation rate and general increase in price levels coincides with a significant rise in the U.S. dollar price against the Sudanese pound.

Last week, the dollar price hit an all-time high on the black market as the Sudanese pound (SDG) declined to 47,00 per dollar.

Also, the purchase price of the U.S. dollar that is being transferred into accounts abroad particularly in Dubai reached 50 Sudanese pounds.

(ST)

August 10, 2018 (JUBA) - The Troika countries Friday warned the IGAD mediators against the unsustainability of the arrangements recently agreed by the South Sudanese parties to resolve the outstanding governance and security issues.

"We are concerned that the arrangements agreed to date are not realistic or sustainable. Given their past leadership failures, South Sudanese leaders will need to behave differently and demonstrate commitment to peace and good governance," said a joint statement issued by the United States, United Kingdom and Norway.

On 5 August, the South Sudanese government and opposition groups signed an agreement on the outstanding issues on governance and power-sharing providing to establish a government with five vice-presidents, 45 ministers and a parliament composed of 550 members.

The government negotiating team refused the opposition calls for lean government and insisted to keep intact its ministerial team of 30 ministers and the 400 parliamentarians.

President Salva Kiir himself complained from the agreed bloated government saying he has no means to provide the needed accommodations and vehicles for all these people.

However, the Troika praised the engagement of the region in the Khartoum-based negotiations. Also, it acknowledged "the role of Sudan in hosting these negotiations".

The three countries underlined the need for an inclusive process encompassing civil society, religious leaders, ethnic minorities saying it is the best hope for a sustainable peace.

"We urge mediators to ensure the open and free participation of these groups and other participants in the negotiations, to ensure their interests are fully protected".

The facilitators further stressed that during the next stage of the talks, the parties must develop clear plans for the transition period.

This includes how resources will be "used in a transparent and accountable way" and how "security will be provided in Juba during the transition period and how meaningful checks will be placed on executive power"

In a meeting held in Khartoum on Thursday, the IGAd Council of Ministers endorsed an implementation matrix and decided that the Khartoum round of talks will continue until the 19 August.

(ST)

With Central African countries beset by ongoing terrorist activity, instability and the effects of climate change, the Security Council has asked the United Nations Secretary-General to review the work of the UN Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA), and recommend areas for improvement.

The United Nations Secretary-General has commended the President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Joseph Kabila’s decision on Thursday, not to stand in elections scheduled to take place on 23 December.

The Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for Burundi, Michel Kafando, has called on the country’s leaders to “seize the opportunity” offered by the recent adoption of a new constitution, to create a new political environment that is “conducive to the consolidation of national unity and peace”.

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