On May 14th, Turkey will hold a critical vote that will determine the fate of its democracy. The incumbent president and leader of the Justice Development Party (AKP), Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is running against the opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who leads the Republican People’s Party (CHP). The campaign is intense, with Erdogan, who has been in power for 20 years, facing stiff competition from Kilicdaroglu and the Nation Alliance, a coalition of six opposition parties: the True Party (CHP), Good Party (IP), Felicity Party (SP), Democrat Party (DP), Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA), and Future Party (GP). Currently, it appears that Kemal Kilicdaroglu is winning while Erdogan is hardly making new gains.
While opinion polls do support my observation (POLITICO’s Poll of Polls puts the contest on a knife edge, meaning there will probably be a second round in the presidential vote on May 28), I base my assessment primarily on the discourse presented by the People’s Alliance, comprising the AKP, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), and other parties like the Great Unity Party (BBP) and the New Welfare Party (YRP). The alliance is facing challenges in offering policies and instead appears to be focusing on attacking the Nation Alliance’s candidate, Kilicdaroglu, in a negative, threatening, and degrading way. Whereas, Kilicdaroglu and his team offers a solid united front with a full-blown democratic agenda. Their platform includes a commitment to bringing wrongdoers to justice, addressing the country’s economic challenges, and developing Turkey’s space industry to support entrepreneurs and scientists. The Kurdish votes could potentially play a significant role in this election, as they have the potential to be a kingmaker. However, the situation for Kurdish politicians remains the same, with many being excluded from mainstream politics and some facing arrest.
The People’s Alliance
The AKP’s strategy of delegitimizing their opponent and pre-emptively dismissing the possibility of a fair election is evident in the rhetoric used by Erdogan and his team at their rallies. Instead of promoting their own platform and highlighting their achievements, they focus on attacking their opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP).
One striking example of this is the statement made by Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu in late April, in which he compared the upcoming general election to the failed coup attempt of July 15, 2016. This comparison is particularly significant given the trauma and division that the coup attempt caused in Turkey, and the widespread support that Erdogan and the AKP received in the aftermath. Soylu’s suggestion that the election itself could be another attempt at a coup undermines the very foundation of democracy and suggests that any outcome other than an AKP victory would be illegitimate.
Moreover, by framing the election in terms of a struggle against Western powers, Soylu and the AKP are attempting to rally nationalist sentiment and cast themselves as defenders of Turkish sovereignty. This is a familiar tactic for the AKP, which has consistently sought to portray itself as standing up to foreign interference and protecting Turkey’s interests against external threats. However, this rhetoric also serves to distract from domestic issues and the AKP’s own record in government.
In another example of the AKP’s election strategy, Erdogan used a speech in May to delegitimize Kilicdaroglu’s candidacy by associating him with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a group that is recognized as a foreign terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union. Specifically, Erdogan claimed that Kilicdaroglu was supported by the Qandil, a mountainous area in the Kurdistan Region near the Iraq-Iran border that served as the PKK’s main headquarters in the 1990s and is currently used as a base camp for Kurdish peshmerga forces.
By linking Kilicdaroglu to the PKK, Erdogan sought to tap into nationalist sentiment and portray his opponent as a threat to Turkey’s security and unity. Additionally, by asserting that the nation would not hand over control of the country to someone who received support from the Qandil, Erdogan effectively suggested that any victory by Kilicdaroglu would be illegitimate.
This strategy of delegitimizing opponents by linking them to terrorism is a familiar tactic for the AKP, which has consistently sought to portray itself as the sole defender of Turkey’s interests and the only party capable of ensuring stability and security. However, by using such divisive and inflammatory rhetoric, the AKP risks further polarizing Turkish society and undermining the democratic process.
The Nation Alliance
The opposition parties in Turkey have formed a strong and dynamic alliance, unlike the Hungarian alliance that was created against Viktor Orban in 2021, ahead of the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections.
Initially, the alliance faced a hurdle when Meral Aksener, the leader of the Good Party, opposed Kilicdaroglu’s candidacy for leadership. However, this disagreement was quickly resolved when it was agreed to introduce two vice-presidential positions to support Kilicdaroglu. This move effectively allowed Aksener to maintain her position as a prominent opposition figure while still supporting the alliance’s leader.
To further bolster their chances of success, the alliance strategically selected two of the CHP’s metropolitan mayors, Ekrem Imamoglu from Istanbul and Mansur Yavas from Ankara, as candidates to support Kilicdaroglu. Both mayors have garnered widespread support and recognition for their effective governance and efforts to promote transparency and accountability in their respective cities.
Since their selection as Kilicdaroglu’s running mates, Imamoglu and Yavas have worked closely with him and other alliance members to create a cohesive and united front against the ruling AKP party. They have also been active in their efforts to engage with voters and spread their message of hope and change across the country.
Overall, the opposition alliance in Turkey represents a significant challenge to the long-standing dominance of the AKP, and the alliance’s ability to overcome its initial disagreements and present a united front bodes well for its chances of success in the upcoming elections.
The Kurds
The Kurds have expressed their support for Kemal Kilicdaroglu for the Presidential elections for three main reasons. Firstly, they hope to get rid of President Erdogan and his ruling clique. Secondly, due to the arrests, detentions and political pressure they have faced, the Kurds could not field their own candidate. And finally, Kilicdaroglu has made some promises that have resonated with the Kurdish community.
However, the Kurds are facing challenges in terms of voters. Their former alliance member, the Turkish Workers Party (TIP), has emerged as a strong contender in the elections. Many people are finding TIP less contentious and with fresh ideas. This could make it difficult for the Kurds to gain significant representation in the elections.
In conclusion, the political pressure and arrests faced by the Kurds have hindered their efforts to achieve greater representation and autonomy, and unfortunately, they may end up being the main losers of this election. They cannot be sure that Kilicdaroglu would keep his promises after the election, since no official proposal was made to the Kurdish representatives.
As the elections are only a week away, the upcoming six days will be crucial for all political parties involved in the electoral campaign. It is expected that the tone of the campaign will become more intense and aggressive among the parties, as they make their final push to secure votes. Meanwhile, the electorate may be cautious and apprehensive about what could happen if the National Alliance wins and Erdogan follows in the footsteps of Donald Trump’s actions in the 2020 US presidential election. The potential consequences of such a scenario have left many voters feeling uneasy and uncertain about the future. If Erdogan were to refuse to concede or make claims of election fraud, it could create a tense and divisive political climate in Turkey. This uncertainty has created an added layer of stress for voters. The upcoming days will be a test of the strength and resilience of Turkey’s democracy, and the eyes of the world will be watching closely.
The post Kilicdaroglu dominates, Erdogan trails, and Kurds left to own devices in Turkish General and Presidential Election (II) appeared first on Ideas on Europe.
On 20th and 21st April 2023, EUHealthGov headed to Brussels for a 2-day workshop discussing research and teaching connected with EU health policy and law. The overarching theme of “Maastricht at 30” provided a useful starting-point to consider both aspects, with the emergence of EU health law and policy as a discipline in its own right typically being traced across this period.
The workshop brought together a range of academics from across Europe, at different career stages, and across law, political science, social policy and public health. This latter diversity, in itself, highlighted important considerations for how and what we research and teach, which forms the basis for future discussions and collaborations.
The research workshop started with Óscar Fernández presenting “The European Union’s global health actorness: Outlining a post-COVID-19 research agenda”. This focus on the EU’s response to the pandemic and its position in global health was followed by Giulia Gallinella discussing early ideas on “The EU’s Role in the WHO during the COVID-19 pandemic: multilateral power politics?”. João Paulo Magalhães considered “Main non-communicable diseases as cross-border health threats: can a European Health Union live up to the treaty potential?”. This was followed by the EUHealthGov coordinators presenting current work forthcoming in a special issue of the Journal of Health Policy, Politics and Law on Political Determinants of Health and the EU. Charlotte Godziewski presented a paper on HERA’s role in increasing integration in health and the EU’s securitisation response to COVID-19. Mary Guy presented work on solidarity in connection with EU competition policy, whilst Eleanor Brooks outlined a model for understanding regulatory chill, Better Regulation and EU health policy.
The teaching workshop was opened by Tamara Hervey, setting the scene for a wide-ranging discussion of how, where, and to whom EU health may be taught, as well as the benefits of student involvement in curriculum design. Inesa Fausch drew on her experience of adopting transdisciplinary approaches in knowledge exchange. Rok Hržič provided insights from the long-established programmes at Maastricht University and experiences of working with problem-based learning in a global classroom. Volkan Yilmaz shared how he incorporated EU health themes into wider public policy and health policy modules, whilst Benjamin Ewert discussed the challenges of teaching EU health themes to students from both within and beyond the EU in an intensive course format. João Paulo Magalhães described his experience as a learner within the context of a public health programme, and Germán Andrés Alarcón Garavito presented the experience of the innovative collaborative Emerging Voices for Global Health Program. As a group, the absence of a comprehensive textbook on EU health governance was a key point of discussion.
Following on from the teaching workshop, EUHealthGov is developing a shared teaching resource which will be posted on our website in due course. For updates on this, and future events of the network, follow us on Twitter, check out the website and/or join our mailing list.
We are very grateful to UACES for funding the network and enabling this in-person workshop, as well as to Mundo-B for providing us with a welcoming space, and to Les Petits Oignons for an excellent dinner!
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We’re now at a point where it’s possible to say that almost all of the Windsor Framework’s numerous elements are now either fully adopted or (for a handful of pieces of EU legislation) in the process of agreement.
PDF: https://bit.ly/UshGraphic119
That might make for a nicely-coloured graphic, but what does it actually mean on the ground?
As various people noted when I tweeted this out, having the legal adoption of a text doesn’t immediately mean it comes into effect, something that was being noted by the witnesses at the Lords Protocol Sub-Committee evidence session yesterday.
Partly that’s because of the provisions of the decisions themselves.
Article 23 of Joint Committee Decision 1/2023 (the key document in all this) sets out a number of different dates for entry into force of provisions. The default date is 30 September 2023, with only a handful of elements immediately in force.
It’s also worth noting that that default date only produces an entry into force if the EU is satisfied about access to UK information, EORI paperwork is correctly issued, the UK has guidelines in place on parcels and NI-GB goods export. No satisfaction, no operationalisation of the provisions.
There’s another reason too, namely the lack of UK documentation to clarify process (h/t to @irishagreement for this).
The government’s Border Target Operating Model will be the new standard system for goods movements across the UK’s borders, but this will only fully come into effect at end October 2024. Moreover, it specifically notes the Windsor Framework’s agreement and says new arrangements will be forthcoming ‘later this year’.
In both cases, the focus returns to UK capacity, rather than EU-UK agreement per se.
This was largely obscured during the time of the Johnson administration: the policy of contesting the Withdrawal Agreement’s provision (and status) meant that building effective systems necessarily took a bit of a back seat. This January’s agreement on a basic system of information-sharing can only be partly explained by the technical issues involved.
But IT is only one part of the infrastructure and process involved, as the Border Target Operating Model makes clear. From the EU’s perspective, making sure that this is all in place is understandably important, given the need to protect against any future backsliding by a UK government that doesn’t have a perfect record (and that might be out of office relatively soon).
This would have been the case even without Windsor: last year’s infringement procedures (now suspended) were precisely about such issues.
Even at arm’s length, interaction with the EU comes with obligations, something that will only become more evident as new areas of cooperation are developed.
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Crazy Time Slot is an exciting online game show that is based on Evolution Gaming’s Dream Catcher money wheel idea. It has a vibrant and fun studio with a main money wheel, a top slot above the wheel, and four bonus games: Cash Hunt, Pachinko, Coin Flip, and Crazy Time.
The game is simple to play: you just place your bets on numbers (1, 2, 5, or 10) and/or the bonus games on the roulette table. Then, the top slot and the main wheel spin together and generate a random multiplier for a random bet spot. If the multiplier and the bet spot match horizontally, you win the multiplier. If the wheel stops on a bonus game and you have placed a bet on it, you enter the bonus game and have a chance to win even bigger multipliers.
The bonus games are interactive and thrilling, as they allow you to make decisions that affect your winnings. For example, in Cash Hunt, you have to shoot at a screen with 108 hidden multipliers and reveal your prize. In Coin Flip, you have to watch a coin with two different multipliers flip and land on one of them. In Pachinko, you have to drop a puck on a wall with pegs and see where it lands. And in Crazy Time, you have to spin a giant wheel with multiple levels and multipliers.
Crazy Time Slot is a game that offers live entertainment with advanced RNG gameplay. It has a high RTP of 96.08% and can award multipliers up to 25,000x your bet. It is a game that is both fun to play and watch, as you never know what will happen next.
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Are you a fan of online gambling? Then you’ve probably tried your luck at roulette. This classic game has been a staple of casinos for centuries and has now made its way to the online world, becoming one of the most popular games among gamblers worldwide. But have you ever wondered how this game came to be? Let’s take a journey through the history of online roulette.
The Early DaysThe first version of the game was created by a French mathematician named Blaise Pascal in the 17th century. He was attempting to create a perpetual motion machine, but instead came up with a game that would eventually become one of the most popular casino games in the world.
The game Pascal created was a simple version of the roulette we know today. It featured a numbered wheel, and players would bet on which number the ball would land on. Over time, the game became more popular, and different variations were created.
The Evolution of RouletteAs roulette made its way across Europe, different variations of the game began to emerge. In Germany, for example, a new version called “German Roulette” was created. This version had a unique betting layout and slightly different rules. In the 1800s, the game made its way to the United States, and once again new variations were created. American Roulette, for example, has a different layout and an extra double-zero slot on the wheel.
With time, roulette became one of the most popular games in casinos worldwide. It’s easy to understand why: the game is simple to play, and the thrill of watching the ball spin around the wheel before it lands on a number is hard to resist.
The Rise of Online RouletteAs technology advanced, so did the world of gambling. In the 1990s, the first online casinos began to appear, and with them came the first online roulette games. At first, these games were basic and lacked the excitement of playing in a real casino. But as technology improved, so did the quality of the online games. Today, online roulette is just as thrilling as playing in a physical casino.
Online roulette has some advantages over its physical counterpart. For instance, players can enjoy the game from the comfort of their own home, without having to travel to a casino. Additionally, online casinos offer different types of roulette games, so players can choose the one they like the most.
Since the rise of online gambling, online roulette has become one of the most played casino games in the world, with millions of people worldwide playing it. The ease of access, the variety of games, and the convenience of playing from home make online roulette a popular choice for many gamblers.
The Future of Online RouletteAs the world becomes more connected, the popularity of online gambling continues to grow. Online roulette is now available on mobile devices, making it even more convenient for players to enjoy. And with the rise of virtual reality technology, it’s only a matter of time before we see virtual roulette tables that look and feel just like the real thing.
Virtual reality technology could revolutionize online roulette, making it possible for players to experience the thrill of playing in a physical casino without leaving their homes. As the technology continues to improve, it’s likely that we’ll see more and more online casinos offering virtual reality roulette games.
In conclusion, the history of online roulette is one of innovation and evolution. From its humble beginnings in 17th century France to the modern, high-tech versions we play today, roulette has certainly come a long way. And with the future looking bright for online gambling, it’s clear that this classic game will continue to be a favorite for years to come. So, if you haven’t tried online roulette yet, now is the time to give it a spin and experience the thrilling game that has captured the hearts of millions of gamblers worldwide.
Being located at the intersection of European Studies and Security Studies, my PhD project looks at how counter-terrorism policy, in particular preventive counter-terrorism, has come to be an important area of integration in EU enlargement towards the South East European accession candidate states. I am interested in how preventive counter-terrorism shapes and (re)orders political relations and networks in EU enlargement. My findings demonstrate that although EU enlargement is often depicted as a clear and linear process, it is rather embedded in a complex transnational structure that in turn impacts the content and development of enlargement and its areas of political integration.
A crucial part of a PhD project is not only the empirical research and the writing process but also the dissemination and presentation of its results. Particularly towards the end of a PhD trajectory, it is very important to disseminate and discuss findings and build a network at international conferences. With the Covid-19 pandemic disrupting many opportunities for in-person conferencing and networking, as it was the case for a significant part of my PhD project, such exchanges have become even more relevant now. The UACES Microgrant was a great opportunity and it enabled me to participate in the International Studies Association (ISA) Annual Conference held on 15-18 March 2023 in Montréal. The ISA Annual Conference is one of the largest annual gatherings of scholars working in the field of International Relations in which my research is embedded. After having attended some academic conferences in Europe, for example the UACES Annual Conference, the ISA conference was the first conference for me taking place outside of Europe. It was therefore an important occasion for me to present my research in a novel setting and to engage with a wider academic community than I had done before.
With the support of the UACES Microgrant, I was able to fund my attendance at the ISA conference and present my research on the underlying assumptions behind the EU’s approach to preventive counter-terrorism in EU enlargement. At the conference, I received valuable feedback and ideas regarding my research. Attendance at the ISA conference contributed to broadening my perspective on my research findings and to seeing potential ways of improving my argument. The comments and questions that I received as well as the inspiration that I got from attending other panels and discussions including the networking events will feed back into my writing process and will certainly improve my dissertation. I am therefore very grateful to UACES for funding my attendance at the ISA Annual Conference and for giving me the opportunity to connect with the International Relations community at a conference located outside of Europe.
About the UACES Microgrants scheme:
The UACES Microgrant scheme is aimed at supporting research for our Early-Career and Individual Members.
The microgrants scheme will provide grants of between £100 and £500 to UACES members to assist them to cover the costs of undertaking their research.
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According to Advocate General Collins, a public body may, under certain conditions, prohibit its employees from wearing any visible sign of political, religious or philosophical belief in their workplace